THE AUSTRIAN EMPIRE AND PAN-GERMANIC ASPIRATIONS.* THE very able and
suggestive study of the present position and the future of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy which was published just a year ago by M. Andre Cheradame, and of which a third edition is now before us, has attracted great attention from political students all over the Continent, and deserves to be better known than it probably is in this country. We propose to give an outline of M. Cheradame's book, without devoting much space to criticism of his attitude, which is deserving of all respect as that of a man who has taken an infinity of pains to comprehend his subject, and who is inspired by an earnest desire for the peace and welfare of Europe. We might take exception to some of his references to this country; it somewhat shakes an English reader's faith in the author's infallibility to find him quietly assuming, as beyond any shadow of doubt, that the South African War was undertaken in order to ensure the passage of the Cape-to-Cairo Railway through the Transvaal, and that a sufficiently loud expression of Continental opinion in favour of the Boers before the war would have led us to submit to their famous ultimatum! But this is not a question that M. Cheradame has studied ; whereas he is up to the eyes in the literature of the Austrian question, and his book is not only most interesting—if disquieting—but full of authority.
In 1889 that eminent historian, M. Albert Sorel, warned the world that on the day when Europe thought that the Eastern
question was solved, that of Austria would take its place.
Too many of us hardly know or care that there is an Austrian question; at the most we have a vague notion that on the death of the Emperor Francis Joseph the Dual Monarchy which he has so long piloted through storms will go to pieces. If we have looked any deeper, we are aware that that Monarchy consists of two very distinct parts. Hungary is a rising and fairly homogeneous State : but Austria is a congeries of Latin, Slavonic, and Teutonic races, held together by the tact of their ruler and the pressure exerted from without. The Austrian question is simply the problem of what will happen in the near future to this Cisleithan part of the Dual Monarchy. M. Cheradame devotes himself to answering it, and to showing what, from his French point of view, is the interest of the world in the matter. In his first chapter he sketches the political evolution of Austria-Hungary
in the nineteenth century, and shows how the present ruler is "a transition Monarch between the German, feudal, and absolute Hapsburg of the past, and the purely national trapsburg who alone will be able to govern in the searching light of the twentieth century:' He shows that the establish- ment of the present Dual Monarchy was a compromise under- taken in the hope of checking the Federal movement, in which alone a solid base for the future existence of an
Austrian State can be found, and thus summarises the teaching of recent history :— " Austria is a polyglot State, with a Slavonic majority, over which the Teutons still maintain an unjust predomination as a surviving consequence of the absolutist regime formerly imposed on their subjects' by the Teutonic dynasty of the Hapsburgs. For a hundred years the situation has been steadily developing. The natural evolution of Austria leads her to Federalism, which would make a monarchical Switzerland of Cisleithania. The establish- ment of Federalism, a purely internal reform, does not involve any modification of the existing frontiers, and so need not trouble European peace. Yet it is certain that Europe is menaced by a danger, lying exclusively in the greed of the German Empire,. headed by Prussia, for Austrian territory?'
As M. Cheradame expresses it on a later page, it is a mis- taken view to think that Austria has lost her vitality as a Great Power; her natural evolution on Federal lines has no tendency to dissolution, and her break-up—if it ever comes— will be the result of external interference. The greater part of his hook is devoted to setting forth the evidence for his firm belief that such interference has been for years secretly • L'Ettropp .ti is. Question d'Auttiche ae Seu4 the lie Siecie. Troisieroe tdition. P' ar Andre Ch6rrulame. Paris ; Plou-Nourrit et Cie. [7 fr. 50 a.]
intended by the German Empire as an outcome and main object of the Pan-German movement. His second, third, and fifth chapters describe the origin and growth of the Pan- German doctrine, its propaganda in Cisleithania, and its fostering by German public opinion and the Berlin Govern- ment; while the fourth chapter considers the attitude of Austria and Hungary respectively to this doctrine, and the sixth discusses the possible means by which the German acquisition of Cisleithania may be brought about, either in peace or war. We cannot even summarise the evidence which M. Cheradame has collected on this head. Only a careful study of his book can put the English reader in posses- sion of a sufficient number of facts to form an opinion on the matter, which is one of vital importance to the peace of Europe. Perhaps M. Cheradame has overrated the influence of some of the publicists whom he cites, but it is impossible to read his great body of quotations without being convinced that the doctrine of Pan-Germanism is rapidly gaining an importance and a number of disciples which force the statesman to take account of it. The Pan-German League, which was founded in 1895 as a derivative of the "General German League" of Dr. Peters, already numbers more than twenty thousand active members, and possesses nearly two hundred branches throughout the German Empire. Its activity in the dissemination of "literature" is untiring, it includes many of the most able and patriotic Germans, and it is suspected on very good evidence to have something more than official approval. Its central doctrine is simple and grandiose,—" Germany is co-extensive with the territory in which the German language is spoken." The chief practical outcome of this doctrine is the propaganda busily carried on in Austria, with a view to adding all the German-speaking part of that composite country to the German Empire, when- ever the time appears to be ripe for such a development,— peacefully, if possible, but, if necessary, by war. Unfortu- tunately, there is every prospect that the latter comae will alone be open.
The difficulties in the way of the realisation of this dream of a great Pan-German Empire, stretching right across Europe from the Baltic to the Adriatic, and including about seventy millions of people, are so grave that one may hope that M. Cheradame is wrong in arguing that the whole power of Germany and the ambition of the Kaiser are bent upon it. In the first place, he reminds us that the Austrian people has to be considered. The Pan-Germans are apt to take for granted that Austria is all on their side. But as a matter of fact, Austria consists of three elements,—" the Germans, the Slays, and the Hapsburgs." The two latter parties are firmly opposed to any German annexation, and the first is divided. The population of Austria contains a Slav majority of fifteen millions, most of whom—like the Czechs —hate the German Empire, and even individual Germans' like poison. Of the nine million Germans, M. Cheradame calculates that two-thirds are either in favour of Federalism, or at least opposed to any Prussian domination. There remain only three million Germans and about a million. of Italians and Roumanians in favour of the Pan-Germanic movement. Hence, as the author shows, any attempt to realise the Greater Germany which the Kaiser and his people are supposed to covet would be met with a very serious resistance in Austria itself: Bohemia has made it quite clear that she, at least, would fight to the death against such an invasion. In the next place, even if the vigorous Pan-Germanic propaganda were to convert all the Austrian Germans, and the Slav resistance were to be broken like that of the Poles, it is clear that the resultant Empire would be such a menace to the peace of Europe and to non-German commerce and industry that any attempt to establish it is bound to meet with ardent resistance. The seventh chapter gives a clear and statesmanlike description of the military, economical, and political results of the absorption of Austria into the German Empire, which shows that, however legitimate and desirable such a consummation may seem in the Wilhelmstrasse, it would be intolerable to at least three of the Great Powers.
In a very able concluding summary of the attitude which the rest of the world should be expected to take, M. Cheradame shows that France and Russia would be vitally injured by such a Greater Germany, while the United States would be hit so hard in its trade as to support their view, and Bulgaria would certainly range itself on their side. Italy and Roumania would probably support Germany, while the action of Turkey and Servia cannot be predicted. M. Cheradame is also in doubt as to the attitude of this country; on the one hand, there is the damage which would be done to our trade by this new Continental system; on the other hand, he thinks it possible that we might, agree to support the Pan-German crusade in return for a free hand in Africa. But that is im- material. His main point is that the Franco-RussianAlliance would be bound to protest, by arms if necessary, iigainst any attempt to add Austria to the German Empire, with all its con- sequences on the Mediterranean, in the Balkans, and in Asia Minor; that such a protest would find strong support in Austria-Hungary; and that the difficulty of carrying out the Pan-German plan in the face of such opposition would be too great for even the Kaiser to face. His conclusion is that the statesmen of the Dual Alliance must make it clear that their attitude is one of unflinching opposition to any external inter- ference with Austria-Hungary, and that the natural tendency of evolution will in that case give birth to a strong and con- tented Federal Monarchy on the Danube which will aid in preserving the balance of power in Europe. Whether or not one agrees with all his views, there can be no question that M. Cheradame has done good service to the cause of European peace by thus frankly exposing what he believes to be its greatest menace. He has given us a book which every student of contemporary politics should read, mark, learn, and inwardly digest.
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