THE AUSTRIAN ELECTIONS.
OPINION in this country is always in favour of Austria. Those who understand the position of European affairs are well aware how important are the existence and the strength of an Empire which can maintain peace in Eastern Europe, which possesses an immense and obedient Army able to throw a heavy weight on the side it adopts, and which is not seeking any aggrandisement at the expense of any other European Power. Those who are not so well informed sympathise with the Austrian Emperor personally, regarding him as a Monarch who in a strange and varied career has become a wise man, who is conservative without being despotic, and who likes Great Britain, as being, in Europe at all events, a non-aggressive Power, and as interested as himself in keeping the Mediterranean fully open. It is therefore with satisfaction that we hear of the success of the Emperor's last great plan, the drowning of inter-racial contests in the flood of universal suffrage. We are writing perhaps a little too soon, for all the results of the second ballots are not yet, known ; but it seems as if the drowning were pretty nearly complete. The Pan-Germans are beaten, and the wilder Czechs, and all the minor parties, except, perhaps, the Poles, who will be guided more by their creed than by any feeling of race. The racial groups are virtually superseded by two main parties, one of them moderately Socialist—that is, in other words, Radical of the English type—and the other Clerical-Socialist—that is, inclined to hate Jews and to be led by the provincial clergy. Both are disposed to be loyal to the dynasty, which has now, therefore, to satisfy first of all the demands of the Cisleithan population. These will end, we suspect, in the usual demands of artisans, plus some sort of Tenant Right Bill, to none of which is the dynasty opposed. Kings do not care about the rate of wages or the hours of labour, and are by no means so anxious to protect the privileges of landlords as they are often accused of being. They look down from a height, and often fail to distinguish grades among their sub- jects to an extent which those . subjects think both admirable and comic. If the dynasty and the. Deputies can keep agreed, the internal safety of Austria will be assured, and the Emperor will have given one more proof of his marvellous capacity, for avoiding difficulties which appeared at first absolutely insuperable. The truth seems to be that, though not a man of genius, he .is a very
considerable diplomatist, that he understands his people better than Sovereigns usually do, and that his policy has the merit of simplicity of object,—namely, to keep the house of Hapsburg at the top of its magnificent but many-faceted Empire.
Nevertheless, there is one reason at least why the new scheme--which will be imitated, of course, in Hungary —should not be satisfactory to Europe, and more especially to Great Britain. It is not quite certain as yet that universal suffrage will maintain the external power of. the Austrian Monarchy at its old level. When the arrangements are complete for Hungary also it will he found that the two dominant castes which for many hundred years have ruled the composite Empire, and on the whole ruled it successfully, have received very severe, it may be even mortal, wounds. The present elections have broken the power of the Germans. and the future elections in Hungary will probably break the power of the. Magyars. It hardly matters whether the Germans prosper or fail in the long run, for they have governed by prestige, and their prestige disappeared with their defeat at the first ballots and the necessity laid on them of accepting help from any unscrupulous party which may offer it. The Magyars will ask no help from any one; but if they also are defeated at the polls the total Empire is transmuted into a new structure, which, even if more commodious, it may be difficult to keep strong. Austria and Hungary, being both governed by the mass of their population, each with a bitter distrust of the other, may be difficult to hold together in foreign politics. Neither of the two masses are by instinct inclined to aggrandise Germany; and both are disposed to fret under the over-severe discipline and enormous cost of the general Army. There will be another fight, we may be sure, for instance over the use of a common language for the military words of command, and about the practical restriction of commissions to men of a single caste. The homogeneity of the Army, if Socialist opinions are to flourish in it, may be seriously impaired ; while the popular feelings of the two, halves of the Empire are almost certain to be widely different. The Hungarians are seldom Ultramontanes, and the Austrians often are. It may be found that the Emperor of Austria, instead of command- ing an Army of two millions of men, commands two Armies whom nothing keeps together except a discipline which will certainly not be strengthened by the criticism of two Parliaments.
Furthermore, we must not forget that castes which have been dominant for centuries are apt to grow savage when their dominance is overthrown. The Germans, in particular, will feel as if they were lost, submerged, drowned amidst races which they hold to be, either by the will of God or by the facts of civilisation, manifestly their inferiors. As Pan-Germans they are beaten, but it is quite possible that to regain their ascendency they may, when opportunity offers, display themselves as more actively Pan-German than before. They may not seek a junction with Germany, because the Austrian Germans are Roman Catholics, and the dominant classes of Germany are essentially Protestant ; but they also may, more especially if Germany, as is quite possible, should economically become far more prosperous than the Southern Power. The Hapsburg dynasty, too, will be strongly drawn toward the Slav majority, and the Germans, at once deserted by their own Monarchs and strongly attracted by the rival family with its marvellous position in the world, may end, as their leaders have often threatened, by transferring their allegiance. It is useless to prophesy, and impossible to calculate, but until experience has shown us much more it is rash to assume that the "Hapsburg Dominion" will be the stronger for the great change which the Emperor has begun to carry through. He has clearly made his internal task easier ; but he has two tasks, and his success with regard to the second must be declared as yet problematical. Of the surprise expressed in some quarters in this country that he should have made the experiment we feel none. Sovereigns have an instinctive feeling for the masses, and are very apt, we suspect, to imagine that they are easier to deal with than those whom the Russian bureaucrats describe as "the intelligents." The former are much more rapidly and deeply impressed by emotions like loyalty, admiration for magnificence, and the love of success, as something decreed by heaven ; while the latter are apt to be critical, and at heart doubtful whether any family, however ancient, is wiser than themselves.
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