Speaking at a luncheon given by the Lord Mayor of
Leeds on Monday, Lord Roberts mentioned the origin of the figure 70,000, which is taken as the maximum number of troops who could invade Britain :—
" That is a purely hypothetical number. I believe I am really responsible for that figure. At a meeting of the Defence Com- mittee very nearly ten years ago I was asked what I thought was the minimum number of men who would venture to attack this country, and after a few minutes' reflection I said I thought the minimum number would be 70,000; but if I had thought that that would be fixed upon as the maximum number, or that that figure would become historical, I would have said 700,000. (Laughter.) There is no foundation for 70,000. It is utter nonsense. It was simply because I thought that a larger number could not come over without being seen. Three times the number that was calculated in 1003 could come over now, owing to the difference in size and speed of ships, so that now you can multiply 70,000 by three."
Others besides ourselves must have wondered how on earth the arbitrary figure of 70,000 came into such prominence that now every discussion on home defence is made to revolve round it. Any figure in such circumstances must obviously be pure guesswork, yet the 70,000 is taken as a definite and concrete thing, and, worse than that, as a maximum instead of as a minimum. Now, quite by accident as it were, in some informal remarks from Lord Roberts we discover the founda- tion of all this solemn humbug and illusion. Lord Roberts's chance reminiscence is perhaps the most important and enlightening thing that has been said in all this welter of guess-work invasion statistics. The incident would be vastly amusing if it were not tragically significant of the manner in which the Government treat home defence.
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