THE VICTORY OF THE FRENCH MODERATES. T HE Moderate Republicans now
form more than half the House. That is the chief feature of the French Elec. Lions. Next in importance are the facts that the Monarchists as a party have ceased, or almost ceased, to exist, that the party of Boulangist defamers has been blotted out, and that the extreme Radicals and Socialists have met with heavy rebuffs. In a• word, the triumph of Moderate Republican views is complete. France has at last said what she might have said, and ought to have said, twenty years ago, and only did not say through a sort of accident :—" The form of Government I desire is a Re- public, but it must be a Conservative Republic." There is, of course, no sort of natural antagonism between the two ideas of Conservatism and Republicanism ; but for a long time it seemed as it France could not be got to under- stand this. She felt that it was absolutely necessary that she should adhere to the Republican Constitution, and yet she longed to place the Conservatives in power ; and interested people whispered that the two things were incompatible. This doubt kept her irresolute and distracted for twenty years. At last, however, the truth dawned upon the electors that they could get what they wanted by means of a Conservative and Moderate Republic, and on Sunday they, for the first time in their history, returned a majority of representatives pledged to be at once Conservative and Republican. A proof of how complete has been the triumph of the Moderates may be drawn from a fact given by M. de Blowitz in the Times of Wednesday. He notes that out of the electoral list of thirty, furnished by the Intransigeant—M. Rochefort's paper—only eight candidates were successful ; while in the case of the 1)obats, the Moderate paper par excellence, over half those recom- mended were returned. As the Americans would put it, no one bad any " show " at the polls but the Moderate Republicans. Even the " Rallied " were not thought Re- publican enough ; while M. Paul de Cassagnac and his followers were smitten hip and thigh. It is as interesting as it is difficult to predict what will be the ultimate result of the Elections. It may be considered certain, however, that the vote finally establishes Repub- lican forms in France, and that, however much the Govern- ment may change in spirit, it will for the future keep within. those forms. In other words, the hope of a Bonapartist. or even of a Bourbon restoration has finally disappeared. In France nothing succeeds like success, and in the course of the next few years we shall see the whole of the old Monarchists " rallied," and content to form the most Conservative and Catholic section of the Moderate Repub- licans, The virtual acceptance of the Republic by the nation as a whole is an enormous point gained. Still, to- render Parliamentary Government in France successful, something more is needed,—a trustworthy and homo- geneous majority, ready to support the Cabinet it calls into existence, if not exactly through thick and thin, at any rate with reasonable loyalty and consistency. Will this be secured by the result of the Elections- of last Sunday ? We trust it may, though of course it is as yet premature to speak definitely. Only time can test such delusive things as Parliamentary majorities. Since, however, the Moderate Republicans number more- than half the House, there seems no reason why they should not put in, and keep in, office a Cabinet of Mode- rates. Hitherto, no French Ministry has been able to rest upon a solid foundation. It has been called into existence by a sudden and temporary, if not indeed fortuitous, con- course of groups, and the moment anything has happened to put an end to that concourse, down has come the Govern- ment, The Prime Ministers—phantoms more transient and embarrassed than even Disraeli's Lord Goderich- who for the last ten years have been crossing the stage of French politics in a never-ending procession, were put into- power for six months and then clismissed, and used up, not owing to any special fickleness on the part of the French Deputy, but owingto the fact that no one homogeneous party constituted more than half the House. The Ministries were trying to stand on a mass of loose barrels floating on the water, and not on a solidly constructed raft. The fear is that, though the elements for the construction of a dominant and homogeneous majority, capable of keeping a Ministry in office, exist in the new House, the tradition in favour of acting by means of groups, and the inability of the French nature to compromise on small matters, may tend to split the Moderate Republicans into sections. If this takes place, some accident of wounded personal ambition or some fad may make one of the groups unreasonable, and may lead it to combine with the Radicals, Socialists,, and Monarchists, in order to upset the Government of the day, We do not say that this will happen ; but, we fear its taking place, especially in view of the fact that there is no Moderate Republican with the gift of leadership. What is wanted is a man like Sir Robert Peel—or, still better, like Lord Palmerston—who wilb keep his supporters together, and teach them what party discipline and party loyalty are. But even if French Ministries do not at once become stable, a great deal has been gained. At least the Republic has worked free from the baleful spell cast by the phrase " Republican Con- centratiou,"—a, phrase which in practice meant that the majority of the Republicans must obey the minority, because if they did not, the Ministry would be put out. of office. In other words, Republican Concentration meant that the tail was to wag the dog. The dog, however, has grown too big to be wagged, and in future. the Moderates will not be frightened by the cry of Republican Concentration. Besides, in future they will, if, occasion arises, be able to rely upon the Rallied without. having treason to the Republic imputed to them.
Be the ultimate results of the Election what they will,. the immediate results are clear enough, All the Cabinet Ministers who sought re-election as Deputies were returned;. and it may therefore be regarded as certain that M. Dupuy and his colleagues will be able to continue in office, and to continue in office with very fair prospects. If they are wise, they will make it clear at once that they intend to constitute themselves the interpreters of the verdict of the country, That verdict was for Moderate Republicanism, and they should therefore show by word. and deed that they intend to carry out a policy of moderation and con... ciliation. They have an excellent opportunity for doing this in regard to the main line of cleavage in French poli- tics,—the clerical question. The Pope is sincerely anxious to come to a friendly understanding with the Republicans on all the outstanding questions ; and, further, he is evidently much dissatisfied with the reactionaries, and by no means inclined to allow them to dictate his policy. He is quite capable of coming to an arrangement with the Government over their heads, and of insisting upon the Church and its pious adherents abiding by any compromise which may be arrived at. This fact is, of course, obvious to the Moderates. Let us trust that they will have enough political foresight as well as enough political stamina to insist upon the eternal clerical squabble being settled on an equitable basis. It remains to be considered what will be the effect of a stable and well- founded French Government, if that, as seems likely, can be secured, upon the foreign policy of France. We cannot help thinking that it will incline the French Government to wiser courses. While a Cabinet is liable to be overthrown at any moment, and has to pick up support hero and there and where it can, there is always a temptation in France to go in for Jingoism,—because Jingoism always rallies a certain amount of support to the Government of the day. If, however, this need for fishing for outside support dis- appears, the temptations towards Jingoism disappear also. Again, a strong Government is far less liable than a weak one to get under the influence of men like Hertz. It is the weak and ill-nourished organism which is most open to the ravages of parasites. The healthy animal does not breed lice. On the whole, then, things seem to promise well not only for the Republic, but for the existing Ministry. At the same time, it is as well to remember that it is the unex- pected which always happens in France. Some gust of passion or some act of political folly may at the last moment counteract the tendencies which now seem so favourable, and may make the arrow point once more to 4' stormy and unsettled."
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