THE EITROPEAN SITUATION.
"FlUROPEAN politics have drifted into a back-water in which it is possible to enjoy the calm and collect one's thoughts. It is a very different state of affairs from a year ago, when all the sluices were open, the tide of events was rushing along at terrific speed, and the interests of Europe, involving issues of peace and war, were being swept forward to one knew not what destiny. Events, in fact, have composed themselves much more favourably than any one dared to hope when Austria-Hungary tore up the Treaty of Berlin and denounced the public law of Europe. What are the reasons of the stillness which we are now enjoying, and. how can we ensure its continuance ?
To some extent we ought to give credit to the ordinary workings of human nature. Count Aehrenthal made a gambler's throw and. brought off his coup, but even while he was raking in his winnings he must have recognised the magnitude of the forces which he had brought into play, and the intensity of the ruin he would have called down on himself and. all Europe if he had failed. For the time being, then, he may be regarded MB a man who is sobered by experience. Of course there are gamblers who are only elated by success, and who go on taking one enormous risk after another, firmly believing in their luck all the while, till they have brought about a disaster beyond redemption. From what we hear, however, Count Aehrenthal is not a man of that type. He probably knows that certain kinds of achievement owe their success to the peculiar condi- tions of the moment, and that when those conditions have passed the achievement cannot be repeated. But, after all. the present composure of Europe cannot be attributed to the demeanour of any one man. The principal explanation is undoubtedly the beneficent influence of the Entente between France, Russia, and Great Britain. The Triple Entente is indeed acting as a league of peace, and we think that this can be demonstrated clearly enough by looking back upon what has happened in the last few months. In October of last year the world was intensely interested by the visit of the Emperor of Russia to the King of Italy. The Emperor travelled to Italy by a roundabout route which conspicuously avoided Austro- Hungarian territory. The drawing together of Russia and Italy was the perfectly natural sequence of the ultimatum —for such it was in effect--which G-ermany had delivered to Russia in order to compel her to cease her resistance to Austro-Hungarian policy in the Balkans. At that moment Servia and Montenegro, with Russian support, could very likely have made the accomplishment of Count Aehrenthal's designs impossible, but without Russian support they were helpless. Russia yielded because she was not prepared materially to resist, and the fine words of Servia and Monte- negro died away into impotent grumbling,s. But Russia, humiliated by having to confess her own weakness, and humiliated by having to abandon the Slav cause in the Balkans, could not let the matter rest there. She remem- bered that she and Italy had always had common interests in the Balkans, and that if they had not prosecuted them in conjunction for some years, it had only been because of the self-denying ordinance entered into with Austria- Hungary. But that ordinance had been ended deliberately by Austria-Hungary. Therefore it was that the Tsar made haste to renew the old co-operation with Italy. In the affairs of Europe, indeed, you cannot detach the sympathy of a neighbour from yourself without attach- ing it in a positive sense to some other neighbour. Thus the new political friendship between Russia and Italy was the quick response to the humiliation of Russia by the Germanis world. Now it was pointed out at the time by many people that as Italy was a member of the Triple Alliance, her friendship with Russia, in apparent opposition to Germany and Austria-Hungary, could be nothing but a new ingredient of danger in the European situation. That prediction has been completely falsified. To begin with, Italy in becoming a member of the Triple Alliance entered into no aggressive society, but simply agreed that Germany, Austria-Hungary, and herself should stand together in the event of any one of them being attacked by Russia or France in combination. As there is not the remotest possibility of France and Russia combining to attack anybody, Italy's membership of the Triple Alliance obviously does not clash with her Entente with Russia. And now that we have had more than three months' experience of the working of this new Entente we see that it is all on the side of peace, and that it is above all a proof of the excellent influence in Europe of the Triple Entente between France, Russia, and Great Britain of which it is an extension.
The Triple Entente has, in fact, attached to itself a new member as much interested as any of the others in the policy of maintaining the status quo. Those who are determined to quarrel with nobody can generally radiate friendship, unless they create unnecessary obstacles through mere folly or a, want of tact. Only the other day Count Aehrenthal, so far from resenting the extension of the influence of the Triple Entente—an influence which, we hope, will eventually embrace every Power that is determined to maintain peace—was making conspicuous advances towards Russia. It is true that he made them in a very clumsy manner,—in such a clumsy manner that he caused many of his German friends to take fright, and his present visit to Germany can only be regarded as a sign that he wants to prove that, after all, Codlin's the friend, not Short. Nothing encourages us to be optimistic more than the consistently smooth and benign working of the Triple Entente. The maintenance of it is much the most important matter to which our Foreign Office can possibly direct its attention. As it is a league of peace, every member of it naturally looks not only without jealousy, but with positive gratification, at every proof that other Powers are improving their relations with one another. Thus when Count Aehrenthal began to make friends again with Russia, we could not help noticing that throughout the French and British Press nothing but pleasure was expressed. In the same way, we are quite sure that if Great Britain and Austria-Hungary gradually returned, as we sincerely hope they will, to their old relation of confidence in one another, no jealousy would manifest itself either in Russia or in France. Perhaps it is scarcely understood as yet in this country what tremendous power Austria-Hungary may wield in Europe if her policy is conducted wisely, and her statesmen do not make the suicidal mistake of throwing away at least half their strength by oppressing the Southern Slays. Austria- Hungary has now a vast population which is increasing more rapidly than the population of Germany, and of course much more rapidly than that of France. Such a country, unless distracted by internal dissensions to such an extent that she falls by a kind of vie inertiae, can scarcely be successfully invaded.
We have drawn a rather rose-coloured picture of Europe at this moment. Where, then, is the danger? For of course there is plenty of danger, even though it be hidden. None of the Great Powers has the slightest immediate pretext for disturbing the peace, but some of the small Powers are in a state of continual and almost incurable dissatisfaction. It may be said that if one of the smaller Powers provoked a war, she could not ulti- mately do much harm, because when the combatants lay panting on the ground after the struggle the Great Powers would intervene and readjust the balance, as they did after the Treaty of San Stefano, after the war between China and Japan, and again after the war between Greece and Turkey. That sounds very well in theory, but the correcting of a balance would give any of the Great Powers which con- sidered itself to have legitimate claims to new territory or influence the very pretext it desired for asserting them. We must not forget that Germany not unnaturally con- siders herself to have been forced into a position of un- deserved disadvantage. She feels that she has come upon the scene too late in the history of the world to build up an Empire commensurate with her abilities to hold and to govern, and she regards every proposal to render the status quo permanent as a disingenuous scheme for stereo- typing her disadvantages. Bulgaria, Servia, and. Greece are the chief of the smaller Powers which entertain a flattering but dangerous conviction that a great future awaits them. In the spring, as soon as the snows melt from the Balkan highlands, their fancy lightly turns to thoughts of war. The eternal Macedonian question is by no means settled. Every week we read that there has been an encounter on the frontier, that bands have reappeared in some district which had been left in peace for many months, or that Bulgarian feeling is outraged by the summary treatment of Bulgarians by the Turkish authorities. The ambition of every Christian State in the Balkans has for a long time been based on the expectation of the break-up of Turkey. Instead of breaking up, Turkey is now making a splendid effort to recover her strength and virtue. We sincerely hope that she will succeed; but we have to admit that if she does the cup will be dashed away for ever from the mouth of people who believed that they were just about to drink the sweet waters. Need we say, then, that the chief peril is that one or more of the neighbours of Turkey may be induced to strike before the Young Turks have had time to reorganise and re-equip their gallant but tattered Army ?
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