A SPECTATOR'S NOTEBOOK I CAN only draw a very tentative moral
here about the by-elections, for the reason that North Battersea, which may be the best indicator of the three, is only just beginning to poll as this is written. Pontypool tells very little indeed. Labour, it is true, has lost 5,000 votes, but the majority last time—over 19,000—was so great that there was clearly no need for any special exertion ; the Conservative vote was increased by less than too. Bexley is a very different matter. To have reduced the majority there by close on io,000, and come within less than 2,000 of winning the seat was a notable achieve- ment on the Conservative candidate's part. There was a real swing here, but whether it denoted any solid shift of opinion, or merely a temporary discontent with bread-rationing, can be better determined when the Battersea result is known. Even if the Government loses Battersea the outstanding fact in the political situation is the absence of any marked reaction against the verdict of last July. You may like that or not like it—personally I don't like it, for the present disparity between the strength of the Government and the Opposi- tion-in the House of Commons is a bad thing; whatever the Govern- -ment's colour—but the fact is inescapable.. After a full year of controversial legislation like the Mines Nationalisation Act and the National Health Service Bill it is remarkable that that situation should exist. There is a good deal more to be said about it, but it would take too much space here.
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