The British FOur-Year Plan
That the British four-year plan, or at least the expected situation at the end of it in 1952-3, should have been published in an American newspaper in Paris and not in a British newspaper in London is no doubt a curious thing. But thanks may be given for the publication of the plan anywhere, and for the picture of modest but gratifying prosperity which it presents. By the first year after the end of E.R.P., if all goes according to plan, we should have a favourable balance of payments of Do° million and a standard of living perhaps 20 per cent. higher than it is now. Coal production will be 253 million tons a year, which sounds optimistic. Steel pro- duction will be 16.7 million tons a year, which sounds pessimistic, but is probably merely out of date, since the plan was drawn up some weeks ago and steel outvut has continued to rise since then.
As a plan, and in itself, it is good. What is equally to the point, the American authorities think it is good. But the road which leads to the desired goal is hard—in fact so hard that there will probably be some difficulty in getting the other European countries benefiting from E.R.P. to follow a similar road. Exports from the United Kingdom in 1952-3 will have to be 30 per cent, above the level of 1947 and the sacrifice which that entails on home consumers is obvious. Production will have to be at least 30 per cent, above the pre-war level and the drive for increased productivity will have to be pressed to the limit if that is to happen_ And at the end of it all, this country may find it more difficult than ever to sell its exports, since it seems to be the intention of every country in Europe to export more and import less. But this is no time for throwing cold water on excellent intentions. High endeavour requires high aims, and in the four-year plan it has got them.
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