Emphasis on Hope
Bulletins about the nation's economic health come from many sources and often give contradictory evidence. The latest bulletin comes from what ought to be the best source— the Treasury—and contains what ought to be the best news— that by the end of this year there is a reasonable chance of our being able to pay our way. The cost of imports has already begun to show a considerable decline, partly because the effects of the Government's restrictions -are beginning to be felt, and partly because the price of some raw materials has gone down. At the same time there are good prospects for substantial returns from the export of coal, engineering products, armaments and refined oil. The reasonably optimistic Treasury calculation is that by the end of the year our accounts with the non-dollar countries will be squared, and that the gap in our dollar accounts will only be of about the size which can be met, for book-keeping purposes, by American armament-credits. But the full picture still requires modifications in this optimism. Although more men are at work in the mines this year than in 1951, and although steel output has recovered, the total level of production for the first half of this year-was rather lower than in 1951, and a further rise in costs mined, for example, by a fresh round of wage increases, could nullify the assump- tions about future export prospects. The long-term goal which the present Government has rightly set itself—the building tip of a " healthy surplus "—therefore remains as remote as ever. But it is comforting to know that we are still treading water.
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