HUNGARY AND THE AUSTRIAN CRISIS.
WE can hardly speak of a new crisis in Austria. The resignation of Count Thun is merely the pro- longation of a crisis which has lasted for years, and which may easily last for years to come. Count Thun met with the misfortune attending all who, with the best intentions, attempt to solve a difficult problem by reconciling opposing interests backed by deeply rooted prejudices. He mortally offended the Germans while not satisfying the Czechs, and he has left a legacy which few Austrian statesmen care to inherit. We do not venture to predict what will be done, though our readers know our general attitude on the question of Austria-Hungary, whose union and integrity we think desirable both for the sake of the Dual Monarchy and for the general peace of Europe. We wish, rather, to point to the fact that the solution of the problem has now really passed into the hands of Hungary, which is, as the Times says, the predominant partner in the Empire. It is true that the population of Hungary is not yet nearly equal to that of the combined countries we call Austria, nor perhaps is its wealth. But, while the condition of Austria is such as to impress an observer with doubt and melancholy, that of Hungary is remarkably reassuring, since the Hungarian people ex- hibit elements of strength such as are to be found in few States of the civilised world.
It is little more than a generation since Hungary achieved her practical independence, and was received by Austria in a partnership on terms of equality. Men still living thought of Hungary as a far-distant, little-known, and somewhat barbarous land, full of brave but rude people, who were fighting one of the greatest and proudest Monarchies in Europe. To-day this people, growing rapidly in resources, is the unquestioned master-power in the Austrian Empire ; its produce finds ready markets over half the world ; its capital city, whose growth is one of the striking facts of our time, is one of the most splendid in Europe ; its new Parliament buildings are perhaps the very finest of modern edifices ; its public men are shrewd and prudent and yet bold ; its people are characterised by an American-like progressiveness which is in striking contrast to the timid and rather old-world tendencies of Austria. Indeed, when a stranger stands in the spacious new avenues of Buda-Pesth, watching the eager throngs and the swift rush of the electric cars, he might for a moment fancy himself in Chicago or Cin- cinnati. There is evident a rich materialism, and yet along with it a powerful moral feeling, a self-conscious pride in achievement. Just as the Civil War imparted a most powerful impetus to American life, so did the struggle for her liberty give an immense impetus to the life of Hungary ; so that when the struggle was over the nation did not settle down to rest or fold its arms in ease, but seemed to be braced for the new task of developing its own free life. In that task it was aided by its homogeneity and its potential wealth. Doubtless the homogeneity of Hungary has its drawbacks, for it has made the Hungarians rather narrow, and has contributed to keep up the feeling of revenge against Austria. The boycotting of the German language on the part of a people whose own tongue is so difficult and so little known outside its borders is as unwise as it is lacking in magnanimity. The Hungarians, controlling the destinies of the Empire, can afford to let bygones be bygones, and it would cer- tainly pay them to do so. But at the same time the narrowness gives of itself an intensity of feeling which cannot fail to be perceived, and, if not loved, at least respected. Constitutional government can be carried on in Hungary because the country is a moral unit, and has not the serious difficulty of dealing with a dozen different peoples, each with its racial and linguistic prejudices, and its separate interests. That magnificent pile now approaching completion which Hungary has reared on the banks of the Danube typifies the solidarity of the Parliamentary regime in Hungary, as the cold, classic edifice on the Ring in Vienna is a sad monument of Austrian Parliamentary failure. The potential riches of Hungary have also aided her in the attainment of her present commanding position. As Buda-Pesth suggests the great American city, so do the rich plains of Hungary suggest the wealthy States of the Mississippi Valley, with their rolling prairies covered with crops of maize, tobacco, and some of the finest wheat in the world. The poverty of analogous districts in Russia and Poland serves as a foil to the obvious physical abundance of Hungary, where peasants have not only the fowl in the pot, but can show in their large, roomy houses a wealth of ornament and apparel shared, so far as we know, by no rural population in the world. If successful agriculture be the basis of the State, then Hungary stands on a very secure footing ; and the absence of constant political crises, of the violent forms of Anti-Semitism and the racial quarrels of Austria, contributes to Hungary's strength. Industrially, of course, Hungary is less advanced, but here she is gaining ground, especially in regard to the making of all kinds of agricultural machinery, and there can be no doubt that as an industrial country she has a considerable future. It will be seen, therefore, on what solid grounds her position as the predominant partner in the Austrian Empire reposes.
It would be interesting to speculate on the probable results of this position which Hungary has so speedily won for herself, both as regards the Dual Empire and AS regards the future of South-Eastern Europe. It is no secret that the German and the Hungarian dislike one another cordially, and hence conclusions have been drawn hinting at the certainty of a rupture. But, however the average man in a Buda-Pesth hotel may protest to you that he loathes Austria and is longing for the time when Hungary shall leave her to her fate and gather round her the new Slavic nationalities in her destined march eastwards, it is clear that the Hungarian statesmen are level-headed public men, who, whatever tiieir feelings, do not permit mere racial dislike to govern their policy. They see that they enjoy the substance of very great political influence, and they will not throw that away for the shadowy reasons that commend themselves to irresponsible chatterers. They see that their country is not only powerful, but free to de- velop its own life, and they are not so sure, if they "cut the painter," that Russia and Germany might not claim to interfere with that freedom. While good relations exist between both the two great central Powers, and while each of those Powers, at any rate, wants no quarrel with Russia, and so peace is maintained in these three Empires, the security of Hungary seems assured, while her preponderant position in the Dual Monarchy enables her to exert no little pressure in the politics of Europe. In short, Hungary enjoys liberty, considerable political power, and great economic prosperity,—three very big, dominating facts. She might retain these as a separate State, but she is not sure, and she prefers to let well alone. That, we think, is the attitude of responsible Hungarian statesmen and thinkers ; and, if we are right, we shall find Hungarian influence directed towards making some effective modus vivendi within the pale of the Empire.
But so far as Europe is concerned, does Hungarian in- fluence make for peace ? What is her mind as regards foreign affairs ? This is a more difficult question to answer, since Hungary has only just wakened to the fact that she is called on to share international political control. It seems to us that, as Hungarian industry grows, the tendency to expansion eastwards will become irresistible, and that, not only will the turbulent regions of European Turkey be found to stand in the way of orderly com- mercial development, but that Salonica will become a great Hungarian port, and that even Asia Minor may be regarded as a field of Hungarian enterprise. At least it is impossible to doubt that this growing material activity must find a very big outlet. If such a develop. meat took place, Hungary would be brought into very sharp competition with Germany in regions which the German Kaiser, in his own mind, has marked for his own. We doubt whether Hungary would care to extend her direct political influence beyond Europe, since it would expose her to possible attacks from which she is now free, and would break up her homogeneous character. If she is wise, she will make trade rather than empire her point d'appui, and trading motives, while clearly leading her to desire the elimination of the Turk and his anarchy, would also lead her to be very cautious in pushing claims which would cause grounds of quarrel with other Powers while conferring no benefit on herself. But it is certain that the coming rejuvenation of the Levant and Asia Minor must be of immense advantage to a rich and shrewd people like those of Hungary. And consequently, whatever the details of her policy, we may be sure that Hungary is destined to play an important part in Eastern politics.
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