GERMANY AND THE MONROE DOCTRINE.
THE Daily Telegraph of Monday contains a striking article in regard to the rise of the German Empire, and as to German aspirations and the possibilities of the future. With regard to Germany's aspirations, both in the spheres of Imperialism and of trade, we are quite at one with the writer. Germany's ambition is boundless, and she has, we do not deny for a moment, a splendid field open to her. Where we chiefly differ from the writer is in his implied, if not expressed, declaration that Germany is our rival, and that Germany looks to build both her Imperial and commercial structure at our expense, and on the ruins of our Empire and our trade. That is a mistake. America, not England, is the rival in German opinion. It is with America, not England, that Germany realises that she must struggle for supremacy. We do not say for a moment that Germany regards America as the enemy. That is not so, but Germany realises that it is America that at the moment lies across Germany's path, and that unless she is able to reckon with America on equal terms she will not become " the world-Power Of the future" she desires to be. Germany, that is, the master minds in the Empire, do not regard England as their rival. We do not mean by this that they really believe that we are effete and played out as a world- Power. Rather they think we have got to the end of our expansion, and that, though we may remain a Great Power for many generations, we shall not go much further. We shall not decline, but we shall not, either commercially or politically, do much more than we have done. If a thoughtful German were to give us his mind he would probably speak something in this way :- `England is not going to pieces. She will remain a. Great Power, and within her vast Empire she will make progress, but her future consists in the development and utilisation of what she has already acquired. That is quite enough work for her forty millions of people to accomplish,—for practically she cannot hope to increase her home population with safety. Possibly she has even now rather too much territory for her home population. At the same time, we quite realise that she has plenty of power to guard her own effectively. To try to take anything away from her would be to court disaster.'
That is the position of the thoughtful statesmen of Germany towards England. They are not going to run their heads up against a brick wall, for that they realise would be the result of attempting to break up the British Empire. But if the thoughtful German of our hypothesis were to go on to speak of the future he would probably speak in this wise. He would say :—‘ Germany, however, means to have a great Empire, in spite of the fact that she does not want to take England's place. There is plenty of territory left in the world out of which to carve a great and world-wide Empire to which England has no claim, and in that undeveloped territory the German race will make the Empire of the future.' If the German were next to be asked specifically what he meant by his allusion to undeveloped territory, he would reply South America in general, and in particular, Brazil. Unquestionably, " the last and the largest Empire" is waiting there for some one.' But he would have to add :—` Of course we cannot take " the last and the largest Empire" without reckoning with America. Her policy of forbidding any European Power to acquire territory on the American Continent, as long as she adheres to it bars our way. In this sense, therefore, America is our rival, — or at any rate stands in our way. What, then, we must work for is to find some method of inducing America to abandon the Monroe doctrine. There is no reason to assume that she will only give it up after war. If we use the foresight and preparation which we have used in the past we can without war and without injury to what should always be to us a friendly Power induce America to cease playing the dog-in-the-manger in South America, and to allow us to enter and enjoy the great Empire already prepared for us by German enterprise. The splendid waterways, the vast forests, and the huge mineral deposits of Brazil form the richest State in the world, and Germany in possession of that oversea Empire, and with an industrious and well-drilled sixty or seventy millions at home, will indeed be " the world-Power of the future." At the same time, we shall carry on a friendly rivalry with America in the matter of commerce, and our people will strive against hers to play in the twentieth century the part of universal provider played by England in the nine- teenth.' That this is the dream of many Germans no one will deny. That it is the dream of the German Emperor can be seen by any one who takes the trouble to study carefully his public utterances and acts. The German Emperor is no enemy of America, but he has steadily fixed his mind upon a policy which runs directly counter to one of the chief maxima of American statesmanship, and he is now using the usual German " foresight " in order to make that policy practical. His demand for a Fleet, and his insistence upon obtaining it, just as his grandfather insisted upon obtaining an Army, is not based upon any vague and shallow idea of having a splendid plaything. Again, he does not want a Fleet in order to get anything out of England, for he knows that he has already got out of us most of what be wants, and also that the destruc- tion of our Fleet would be too hard a nut to crack. He wants a Fleet in order that when he puts his South American policy into operation he will not be made ridiculous by an order from Washington. Mark, he does not want to attack America in the very least, but merely to have the proper physical backing when he asks the 'United States not to play dog-in-the-manger any longer in regard to Spanish and Portuguese America. He believes that when he occupies the Rio Grande do Sul the Americans will waive the Monroe doctrine if his Fleet is equal to or stronger than theirs. Was it not with such an idea in his mind that in his New Year's speech on the need of a Navy he declared " If anything has to be done in this world the pen will be powerless to carry it through un- less hacked by the force of the sword"? Germany and the German Emperor want a Fleet, then, not for parade or to flaunt in other people's faces, but in order to do some- thing definite with it, and that something is making America give up what the Germans regard as her dog-in- the-manger attitude. In addition to the Fleet, we know from one of his own speeches that the German Emperor relies upon yet another force to help him in obtaining his end in America. He realises the immense importance of the German vote in American politics, and counts upon using that vote when the time comes to produce, as he says, good feeling between America and Germany. Whether he was wise in the public announcement of this fact, or whether he realises how sensitive Americans are in regard to any interference in their internal affairs, is another matter. All we are concerned with just now is the undoubted fact that the German Emperor is looking forward to the Germans in America, being able to give him a friendly hand whenever he begins to put his South American policy into action.
When we speak of the German Emperor's South American policy it must not be considered that we mean to imply that this is to be begun this year, or next year, or even in five years' time. It may be a very long time before the foundations of the new Empire will be laid, but meantime " foresight " is at work, and the work of preparation will be pursued. They will not be provocative, or in any sense essentially unfriendly to America, but they will be absolutely thorough. Now, under these circumstances, we think that America should look ahead, and not copy the policy of drifting which has so otten proved injurious to the Old Country. That is, America should make up her mind whether she means, when the time comes, to insist rigidly on the Monroe doctrine. If she does not, and there are many very good reasons why she should abandon it, she need not trouble herself at all about German aspirations, for they will not injure her.—After all, as the Germans argue, America does not want Brazil for herself, and there- fore she need not mind Germany having it —There is no other point on which the Germans will touch her. Indeed, on all other matters Germany will show the utmost friendliness, not to say compliance, in regard to America. If, however, America really means business about the Monroe doctrine, and really thinks it is of importance to her national welfare to enforce it, she must not go to sleep. She must see to it, that is, that she has naval and military resources equal to the strain of maintaining a policy so tremendous. If not, she is certain to suffer a great humiliation at the bands of patient, efficient, and persistent Germany. Germany, when the hour comes, will not be bluff-d into respect for the Monroe doctrine.
She will " call " America's Fleet, and if that Fleet is not higher than hers Germany will act. If, however, it is superior America will never even hear of the danger to which the Monroe doctrine is now exposed. Let ns say once again we do not believe for a moment that Germany has any designs against the United States herself or bears her any She is merely working steadily for an aspiration which comes in violent conflict with a certain American aspiration,—the Monroe doctrine.
Hence any one who likes to use his eyes can see that either the Monroe doctrine will have to be given up or its defence properly prepared for. Any halting between
these policies must prove either disastrous or at any rate humiliating for the United States. We British are
seeing just now what comes of neglecting to prepare for enfoicing or else abandoning a national e., the maintenance of British supremacy in South Africa. But to improvise in a hurry means of meeting a Boer attack on that. supreniacy is child's play to meeting a German challenge of the Mouroe doctrine.
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