TURKEY AND FRANCE. T HE English world is, perhaps, inclined to
think quarrels between any European Power and Turkey, like quarrels between such a Power and China, a little too unimportant. Nothing, it is imagined, can come of them wept words, and perhaps "incidents." The Sultan is certain to give way after more or less of protest and fuss, and whether he has or has not anything of a case does not awn), matter. He is, at any rate, a barbarian, and he Massacred the Armenians. Substantially and as a general rule that view is correct, but we are not sure that it will invariably hold good, and on the day when it ceases to hold ood the " incidents " may be of considerable moment to mankind. In the present instance, for example, the quarrel with France, though the Sultan will probably give way—his only case being that he is overcharged—it is Just possible that both he and his opponent may find them- selves in a kind of impasse. France really cannot recede. She has proclaimed her grievances to the whole world by withdrawing her Ambassador or allowing him to with- draw, she has officially announced a "rupture," and she has permitted her business man at Constantinople to pass an affront on the Sultan personally by abstaining from the regular congratulations on the Imperial birthday. To recede now would be to make M. DelcasstS rather ridicu- lous, to give the Nationalists ground for posing as the only protectors of the honour of France, and, as we pointed out last week, to destroy the waning influence of Paris throughout the Levant. Yet if any Great Power inter- venes, and thereby makes the Sultan obstinate, M. Del- easel may find that decided measures will involve serious risk ; and it is difficult to believe that no Great Power will consent to intervene. Russia claims always to be protector of Turkey, and may not enjoy seeing her prole0 humiliated, and her own chance of obtaining the rest of her Indemnity of 1877 recede into the far distance. Germany is endeavouring to conciliate the Sultan in the interest of railway lines, which will, her Emperor hopes, gives her a foothold in the East, and Germany has weight in Paris. Even Austria, which needs the goodwill of Turkey to maintain her position in the Balkans, may not be unwilling by informal mediation to do a service to the friend who can do so many for her. France will not be willing to irritate any of these Powers, especially just now, and when one party to the dispute is a dully obstinate man who comprehends only half he sees, compromises are difficult to arrange. On the other hand, the Sultan, though willing to arrange matters by a small loan, of which be could use the balance to meet the pressing demands of his immediate entourage, may, if supported at all, find it hard to yield. He has to keep up, if not his own dignity, at least the dignity of his great office. His own people are evidently angry. His Ministers, whom ney troubles are driving to their wits' end, are so excited that they have ventured on the extreme step of open remonstrance against concession. Even the Sheikh-ul- Islam has said his word against such submission to the infidel, and thoug'a one hardly sees how the Faith is concerned, even the Sultan dislikes bickering with the authontative expositor of Mussulma.n law. The boat- men, who often lead the populace, are in &ferment because the concessionaire.; of the quays about which the dispute began threaten their monopoly of centuries ; and altogether the Sultan must feel that he has almost as much to fear from yielding as from resisting, at least up to the point at which shells may begin to fall. Add that, although he is a morbidly nervous man, actual war does not terrify the Sultan quite as much as we think, and that he has some bold men beside him, and we may see good reasons why Abd-ul-Hamid, not for the first time in his life, should turn mule, and resolve to see what will happen if he does nothing. Nobody, he is well aware, can get a Chinese indemnity out of him, and except an indemnity, what is there to be got to which all the Powers will be willing to consent? He has islands by the dozen, but France has nearly enough colonial expenditure on her shoulders ; and as islands can be transferred, any compromise of that kind will be treated as matter of European import, and excite jealousies none the pleasanter because they would be so vague.
If the Sultan can yield—which, remembering the state of his exchequer, is not quite certain—and does yield, his submission will be caused by a danger of which he is always aware, which will be increased by that submission, and which of itself constitutes a permanent menace to European tranquillity. He is the absolute master of thirty-three millions of people, of whom all but nine mil- lions, that is, all but the Osmanli caste, detest his person, distrust his government, and would put his agents to death if they dared. Albania is only not in rebellion because one does not apply such big words to so small a State and insignificant a people. Macedonia is only held down by a heavy garrison of Asiatics, and the certainty that if a rising occurred they would be let loose to repeat the scenes which twenty-five years ago in Bulgaria shocked the civilised. world. Tripoli is perfectly willing to ex- change its nominal vassalage for independence. Arabia rebels about once in every three years. Syria is crushed by the exactions of the taxgatherer, and would welcome any government as a relief from the Sultan. Armenia is a province where all men cower but all men curse, and would welcome even Russians as deliverers. Even Con- stantinople, the city where all taxes are spent, and where the life of the Empire is concentrated, seethes with dis- content so bitter that the Sultan guards himself from his own people and his own garrison, employs hundreds of spies to watch them, and keeps his Fleet rotting at anchor because when the uprising cOmes the sailors may, if they are faithful, turn their guns upon the rebels. Any collision between Turkey and a European Power might inspire any of these elements of disorder with hope, and the smallest ray of hope might induce any one of them to decide, as the inhabitants of so many Turkish provinces have decided, that it is better to face any danger or serve any unaccus- tomed master than to remain for another generation under Osmanli rule. That is the permanent risk which induces the most military of all Powers to submit to one aggression after another, and it is as great a danger for Europe as for the Empire immediately threatened. There is not a province belonging to Turkey which some European Government does not covet. Even Tripoli could not move without awaking Italy, and the fate of Arabia, which seems so remote and separate, directly concerns the masters of Egypt, and rulers of fifty millions of Mussul- mans who look to Mecca for spiritual guidance. An obstinate_ Sultan might bring the whole modern world tumbling about our ears, and any Power which threatens Constantinople without striking quick and hard may develop in the Sultan, or in men around him whom he cannot offend, an obstinacy which nothing except destruction would overcome. The Turk is a Chinaman who loves, instead of despising, fighting. This is why the elements of a grand struggle lie always packed in Con- stantinople, and why diplomatists and Sovereigns, unlike journalists, fail to consider any commotion there, however small it may look, a matter of trivial importance. Matches are small things, but the keepers of ina,gazi nes watch their entry with interested eyes. We do not feel quite certain that France is not treading on a match.
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