Reasons for Barack Obama to be cheerful
James Forsyth says that Super Tuesday did not give the Illinois senator the mandate he craved. But, with money, time and inspiration on his side, he can still beat Hillary Washington Super Tuesday was meant to be the decisive day in the Obama–Clinton contest. Instead it was an indecisive super-muddle. Both candidates did only what they needed to do and no more. After California was called for Clinton, Missouri ended up going for Obama — a turnaround which ensured that the evening ended in a score draw but with Obama leading on away goals.
It was meant to be the night that Hillary Clinton was anointed as the Democratic nominee presumptive. The Clintonite establishment — which played such a crucial role in setting up a schedule where more than 20 states voted on one day — did not believe that any challenger could survive what was effectively a national primary against a candidate with 100 per cent name-recognition. Hillary had establishment support and access to a tried and tested money-raising machine. But Obama still lives. He won a majority of the states, 13 to her nine, and in the all-important delegate count Hillary is, at the time of writing, only leading thanks to the support of unelected super-delegates.
The initial reaction in Washington was that the night was a touch disappointing for Obama. He failed to pull off the upset win in Massachusetts, New Jersey or California that would have marked him out as the frontrunner. Indeed, given the wave of momentum that Obama had been riding since his two-to-one victory in South Carolina, many were expecting a tidal wave to sweep the Clintons away, a feeling that was bolstered by early exit polls.
But though Obama failed to deal a knockout blow to Hillary, he is nonetheless in the stronger position now, as long as his supporters remain patient. Hillary, after all, only broke the 60 per cent barrier in one state, and that was in Arkansas where she had been the governor’s wife. Obama did so in eight contests. He remains the overwhelming favourite of independent voters and the eclectic collection of states that he won shows that his appeal is genu inely nationwide. Obama could force the Republicans to play defence in some unexpected places, and he cannot now be put in a box as the ‘black candidate’. Indeed, one of the most important stories of the night was that Obama has solidified black support while becoming ever more popular with whites. If Hillary loses the nomination, the decision to play dirty in South Carolina will be one of the main reasons why.
The next fortnight will be crucial for the Obama campaign. If the momentum is to be maintained, he must rack up victories in the vast majority of the upcoming contests. But the good news is that all nine are on favourable territory for him, and indeed it is entirely possible that he could sweep these states. This would transform the race again and put the press on Hillary campaign implosion watch.
Can he do it? Well, he won every caucus state which had declared by Wednesday morning and four of the upcoming states are caucuses which play to the enthusiasm and organisational strength of the Obama camp. Three are contests where African Americans will likely make up half of the Democratic primary electorate. The two other states — Virginia and Wisconsin — should also be responsive to Obama’s message, combining as they do liberals and rural voters. He will also be helped by having the endorsement of the governors of both states and the fact that in Virginia, blacks will make up around a third of the electorate.
If Obama were to take the vast majority of the delegates in these states, then he would be well placed to move forward to Ohio and Texas which, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, vote on 4 March. Obama does best where he has campaigned longest and the two-week gap should allow him to barnstorm across these states. He also, unbelievably, has the financial advantage. He raised almost $20 million more than Hillary in January and few of his smaller donors have reached the $2,300 limit set by campaign finance laws, so he can go back to them, cap in hand. It would be a supreme irony if the supposedly ‘inevitable’ nominee failed for lack of funds.
It used to be presumed that it was Obama, not Hillary, who needed to avoid the knockout blow on Super Tuesday. But the last nine days have been remarkable. Indeed, the slim margins by which Hillary carried several states suggest that if it had been Super Thursday, not Super Tuesday, Obama might now be the definite favourite for the nomination.
Throughout this campaign, Obama has done things which were not meant to be possible in politics any more. More than 20,000 people waited for him patiently in St Louis on Saturday night, though Mardi Gras was going on. This is not something that is meant to happen in this era of voter apathy. But the response to Obama’s rhetoric shows that the public wants to believe in the higher purposes of politics again. Clintonite ‘triangulation’ no longer seems an adequate response to the nation’s problems.
A large part of the pull of the Obama candidacy is a yearning to be part of something larger than oneself and it’s obvious that the crowd at his events feed off each other’s emotions. He draws much of his support from young voters, idealists and African Americans — groups whose faith in the future is notoriously, and understandably, easily shaken. So the challenge for Obama is to keep these ardent fans fired up as this race drags on. Perhaps this is why in his election night speech he emphasised that change does not come easily, citing the struggles he faced as a community organiser.
As for the Republicans, they appear to be moving steadily towards picking a nominee. John McCain had a good night, if not a great one, and now has more than half the delegates he needs to win the nomination. And as McCain emerges more certainly as the Republican nominee, so it looks increasingly positive for Obama. If McCain wins, independents will flood into the open Democratic primaries and the focus of the race will turn to electability where Obama has the edge. It would be an appropriate final twist for this most unpredictable of races if the idealistic candidate ended up triumphing for the most pragmatic of reasons.
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