HITLER'S NEXT MOVE "A T the moment," said the Prime Minister
in the closing passage of his speech in the House of Commons on Tuesday, "there is a lull in the operations of war, but at any time the lull may be sharply broken, and events may occur within a few weeks or a few hours which will reshape the history of the world." In those words the essence of the situation is expressed. The measures taken by Holland and Belgium in the past week, for good reason, and the knowledge that a million German troops are massed on the frontiers of those two countries, are proof enough of the truth under- lying the Premier's warning that a spectacular change in the military situation may be literally only a matter of hours. But the possible and the probable, much more the possible and the certain, are different things. So far from its being certain that Herr Hitler has decided to invade the Low Countries, an attack on them seems actually less likely than it did during last Week-end. In the two countries themselves tension is said to have relaxed to "semi-tension." But nothing has happened to make a word of the Prime Minister's warning superfluous.
For if anything is certain in this most incalculable of all wars it is the inevitability of some German stroke within dip next few weeks. Germany cannot afford to wait. Despite M. Reynaud's wise observation that time is only on the side of the Allies if they use it aright, the Allies have on the face of it more to gain by waiting than Germany. Their blockade is doing its work and its consequences must be increasingly felt. The steady flow of troops from Britain to the Western Front has begun and will long continue, as the conscription system yields its product. The output of munitions, and par- ticularly of aeroplanes, is no doubt still increasing in Germany as well as in France and Britain, but the Allies' capacity for expansion is undoubtedly the greater, and in addition the acquisitions by purchase from the United States are a factor of growing importance, of special value in the period that must elapse before the Empire scheme centred in Canada makes its vast contribution. At the same time, while in the absence of some unexpected and improbable development in the sub- marine and mine campaign the Allies will continue to have access to the resources of the world, Germany has difficulty already of replenishing her stocks—some of them admittedly substantial—of various essential materials, notably petrol. Any active military operations will involve immense petrol-consumption and all the signs are that Germany's prospect of extensive imports from the two sources of supply open to her, Russia and Rumania, is progressively diminishing.
Another factor of significance in any survey of the immediate future must be given its full weight. So far as can be seen the political drift throughout the world is away from Germany. She has today one accomplice and no friends, and the accomplice is patently consulting no one's interests but his own. Not a year ago we were being warned with reason to expect a war in which Germany would be conducting an air and sea campaign from aerodromes and submarine bases in Spain, in alliance with an Italy still retaining air-bases in Majorca and making communications through the Mediterranean so hazardous that the Cape route to the East and Australia would become general, while Japan, as a joint
signatory of the anti-Comintern Pact, would be actively assisting Germany in Asia. Those fears are dissipated. Spam, completely alienated from Germany by the Russo- German Pact, has just concluded an important trade agreement with France and is doing her best to re- establish her normal trade relations with Britain. Italy, keeping her own counsel and pursuing her own policy, maintaining all her claims against France, vigorously challenging the British contraband control when it appears to act vexatiously in its dealing with Italian vessels, is scrupulously avoiding any support, open or concealed, of Germany, whose attitude towards Russia and Finland has angered and embittered the great mass of her people. Meanwhile, by discreet and successful statesmanship Italy is working effectively to prevent any extension of the war to the Balkan States. The assur- ances of neutrality just given to Turkey by Bulgaria, who might easily have lent herself to German. or Russian ends, increase the probability of peace and stability being maintained in South-East Europe.
What this means is that as the war develops the number of the Allies' enemies is most unlikely to be increased, though Russia must be regarded as a potential opponent. The number of Germany's enemies, on the other hand, may well be increased, for Herr Hitler is faced with a grave dilemma when he tries to strike the balance of advantage between his military aims and their political consequences. He can seize no more territory without war. On military grounds alone the obvious 'strategy is an enveloping movement which would end the siege warfare which the existence of the Maginot and Siegfried Lines imposes on both combatants. That is enough in itself to account for the persistent allegations in Berlin that the Allies are about to attack through the Low Countries, Scandinavia or the Balkans, while the allegations in their turn may well serve to conceal or to herald an intention on Germany's part to make precisely such a move herself. Germany's threats to the Low Countries and Russia's threats to Scandinavia may, indeed, be interpreted as portending a German attack on Scandinavia. It would be immensely to Ger- many's (or Russia's) interests to secure bases on Nor- way's western and Sweden's south-western coasts, while Germany might think the invaluable iron ore of Sweden safer in her hands than in Sweden's. But since the Allies would obviously come immediately to the help of the Scandinavians, and British sea-power might decide the issue, Germany would run considerable risk of losing altogether the ore she imports from Sweden today. That may secure Scandinavia immunity, for so long as Russia is incapable of conquering the Finns it is premature to be considering her conquest of Sweden and Norway.
That being so, and since a German attack on one Balkan State promises to provoke general Balkan resist- ance, and an invasion of Belgium or Holland would add the armies of both countries to the forces of the Allies, besides closing to Germany the only possible channel of export by sea, the advantages of the enveloping move- ment may be counteracted by its disadvantages. Even strategically it might be of equal or greater benefit to the Allies, while any new attack on a neutral would stir American opinion, south as well as north of Panama, still more deeply, a consideration which at a crisis of the war might have vital consequences. But there is no room
for false optimism. The present might of Germany is immense and her power of attack tremendous. The seeds of internal dissolution may be taking root, but there is no sign of disintegration yet, nor does faith in Herr Hitler seem to be seriously shaken. Germans and Russians are destined to be driven closer together, but Russia's co-operation can have little immediate value, and the unhallowed union is gradually hardening the world against both countries. It is worth remembering, moreover, that our alliance with Turkey makes Russia, should we be involved in war with her, extremely vulner- able through the Black Sea. In such circumstances it is not surprising to hear of acute differences in Berlin on where the next military move should be. It is idle to attempt to predict here the plans of a Hitler who has-not made his own mind up.
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