THE MACEDONIAN RUMOURS. T HE air is full of rumours that
the Macedonian ques- tion is at last upon us, and that the diplomatists will have to face in earnest what they have always regarded as the most difficult and hopeless of all the many hopeless aspects of the problem involved in the decay of Turkey. The ordinary man is apt to wonder why- there should always be so much fuss and worry the' moment there is any fighting or confusion in Macedonia. He sees that the Druses rise in Syria or the Arabs in Arabia without any very great results, and he cannot see. why so much extra trouble and nervousness should be- apparent in Europe merely because this particular tract- of brigand-infested mountains is showing more than its usual amount of anarchy. "Of course," he declares, " the- whole of the Turkish Empire is rotten to the core, but why am I to be specially excited about Macedonia ? What is the sense of saying that Armenia and Crete matter nothing when compared with the problem of how to get order restored in the Macedonian valleys ?" In spite, how- ever, of the apparent common-sense of this view of the matter, there is good reason for special anxiety about Macedonia. A series of circumstances, geographical, historical, and ethnological, make Macedonia one of the most critical places in Europe in relation to the Turkish question,—the danger spot whence may spread difficulties that will involve the whole world. There are possible and practicable plans for disposing of the whole of the rest of the Turkish Empire. But for dealing with Macedonia no plan has ever yet been devised except the status quo which is capable of satisfying, even hypo- thetically, those who claim to be concerned with its fate. A good case can be made out for apportioning every other Turkish province, but for the Macedonian trouble there is no plan which will even look well on paper. The theoretical difficulties of settling the matter are every bit as great as the practical. The difficulty arises in this way. Bulgaria and Greece have, or think they have, equal claims to the whole of Macedonia, and neither will yield an inch to the other. "It belongs to us," cry the Greeks, "as the heirs of Alexander." "It is ours," say the Bulgarians, "as the representatives of the old Bulgarian kingdom with which Macedonia was incor- porated." Neither will abate the slightest portion of this claim, and each declares that she will fight to the death, and involve all Europe in war, rather than allow the other to seize her inheritance. Nor is this mere bluff. Each Power is ambitious, and each Power feels that if she is ever to obtain the great place in the world which she holds to be her due, she must obtain territorial expansion. But for both, territorial expansion is possible only in Macedonia. It is the one place which can give either Power what it wants. And in truth Macedonia is well worth having. Its mountains are steep, but they are full of minerals, its plains and valleys are fertile beyond belief, while the climate is among the best in the world. Perhaps it will be said, "Why should not the matter be settled by a compromise ? Let Greece and Bulgaria split the difference, and when the time comes—i.e., when the Turkish collapse occurs—each take half Macedonia." Unfortunately, however, a series of hard facts forbids this simple solution. If those of the in- habitants of Macedonia who are Bulgarians by race, religion, and language lived in one portion of Macedonia, and those who are Greeks in the other, it would be possible, no doubt, to arrange for a division of the spoil. It happens, however, that the two peoples are hopelessly intermixed, and that it would be quite impossible to draw a line which would correspond with the racial configura- tion of Macedonia. Hence Bulgaria and Greece watch each other's moves in Macedonia with the utmost solicitude lest one or the other should obtain an advantage. Nor is this the whole tale of difficulty. Servia also has claims on Macedonia, and has no intention of giving them up, and the moment anything like a scramble began she would plunge into the fray. Montenegro, too, feels that she must be considered, and may be relied upon to make her voice, and what is more, her rifles, heard if once the dogs of war are let loose in the Balkans. In a word, if once anarchy goes beyond a certain point in Macedonia there is imminent danger of a free fight among the smaller States of South-Eastern Europe. And Europe realises that the Great Powers must sooner or later be involved in such a struggle, and that out of the small squabble might grow that great strife for the inheritance of the Turk which it is the main object of diplomacy to postpone. To put the matter in plain terms, if an insurrection were once to get headway in Macedonia, either Greece or Bulgaria or Servia would be certain to try to turn the rising to her own advantage, or would be suspected of doing so, which is almost as bad, and so would produce a situation in the Balkans of the most critical kind.
To avoid this danger there are two courses open. The first is to maintain the status quo,—to let sleeping dogs lie. But the maintenance of the status quo depends upon the ability of the Sultan to keep order in Macedonia, and his power to do this becomes daily more and more doubtful. It is possible, of course, that the Turks may be able to hold on, especially as hitherto a large portion of the population has always preferred Turkish anarchy to the prospect of paying Bulgarian or Greek taxes. If, however, as is rumoured, the Albanian Beys are beginning to get uneasy, and seeing the end of Turkey in view, are desirous of getting absorbed by Greece as the Power which will restrain them least, the status quo may be very near destruction. And though this rumour may not be well founded, it is clear that the position is extremely critical, and that we may have arrived at the point when an alternative to the status quo, good or ill, will have to be found. This brings us to the second course of which we spoke. That is, the handing over of Mace- donia to Austria as the policeman of Europe. If the Powers would agree to this, it would of course be an ideal solution. In ten, nay, very likely in five, years Macedonia would be another Bosnia, and we should see roads, rail- ways, and good government in full swing. But would the Powers agree to such an arrangement ? We greatly fear that they would not. Russia would in all probability hold, and perhaps not unnaturally, that Austria had already received more than she was entitled to out of the sick man's inheritance. She would object, too, to so great a step towards the proposal to put Constantinople in the hands of the Hapsburgs. It might be all very well to let Austria go to Salonica if Russia were to go to Constantinople, but unless and until she is firmly fixed on the Bosphorus we cannot imagine Russia agreeing to Austria taking over Macedonia. In other words, Russia will not agree to Austria taking Macedonia unless the whole of the Turkish Empire is finally partitioned. But this is the very thing which Europe wants to avoid, and to prevent which it has been suggested that Austria should intervene. It would be nothing but a political " Bull " to stave off the settlement of the Eastern question by bringing it on in its acutest and most direct form. We come back, then, to this impasse :—The status quo is apparently breaking down in Macedonia, and if it does break down there is nothing which can take its place without involving grave risks of war. No wonder, then, that the diplomatists are nervous when they read of risings in Macedonia, and declare that the Macedonian problem is the most hopeless of all the problems with which they have to deal. It is a strange and not very edifying spectacle. All the great Kings and statesmen of Europe are sitting in a circle watching with alarm the movements of a little ant - hill, and. wondering without disguise whether some trumpery con- vulsion there, may not make it necessary for them to fly at each other's throats and fight till the cause of civilisation has been put back by fifty years.
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