THE DISQUIET ON THE CONTINENT.
CONSIDERING what has been said for the last forty- four years of the tottering position of the Austrian Empire—we suppose, as we can no longer offend Mr. Free- man, we may use that convenient phrase—it is rather a striking fact that at this moment the least disquieted State in Europe of any importance should be the one which the Hapsburgs guide. Austria, like the rest of the Continent, is armed to the teeth ; she has some political difficulties in Bohemia ; and the social question crops up now and again in her great cities ; but as a whole she is tranquil and fairly prosperous. The Emperor's authority as universal Referee within his wide dominion rather increases than declines with his advancing years ; his possessions are secure, as they have never yet been, under the shadow of the League of Peace ; and the internal quarrels in his medley of Kingdoms, though they are neither ended nor appeased, find expression in forma which do not untie or even greatly weaken that thin but infrangible bond of interest which for so many generations has held the Monarchy together. The Army is more powerful than if it had never been defeated ; the communications of the Empire are as complete as in any State of equal size ; and the Treasury, which during a half-century has always been distrusted, is so full, that the return to a metallic currency has been ordered, and is only delayed by the universal doubt as to the expedient ratio between the two forms of specie currency. The facts may change very speedily, as has so often happened in the Hapsburg dominion ; but they indicate the deep-seated vitality in the Empire, upon which we have descanted for twenty years with- out ever obtaining a full hearing. They are the more noteworthy because, though Europe has informally agreed to postpone war as too full of unknown pos- sibilities, the condition of Europe at large is one, not of rest, but of anxious disquiet. The Russian Empire is full of trouble. Its external policy for twelve years has been exceptionally unsuccessful ; its military preparations burden the Empire without producing even the pleasure of expectation ; it has developed no states- man of any eminence—for M. de Giers is a chief clerk, and M. Vishnegradski is a clever financier rather than a man of originating mind, and is besides out of favour— and it has been afflicted with two great recent misfor- tunes, the influence of an anti-Semite party and the famine. The persecution of the Jews has made the most influential caste in Europe, a caste controlling all Bourses and most newspapers, the deadly foes of the Romanoffs, while the famine has shattered all hope of prosperity for the Treasury for many a long day. That Treasury feels the fall in silver as much as the Indian Government, and in a more oppressive way, the "fall in the rouble," which is based on silver, not only impoverishing it, but shaking its credit so that its borrowing power is probably not half that of the dependent Empire, which, if it offered the same rate, could raise a hundred millions in a week. There is unrest throughout Western and Southern Russia, unrest felt even by the Throne, and unmitigated by any latent hope, partly because the people are pessimist, partly because leadership is not expected of this Czar, and partly because an idea, probably accurate, that Russian agriculture has since emancipation slipped decidedly back, is gaining possession of the general mind. All who write from Russia, write despondently, and though the mood of Slays changes quickly, for the present it is anxiety which governs throughout the Empire. Matters are better in Germany, because in Germany authority rests on such solid supports ; but in Germany also there is deep unrest. Much more anxiety is felt there as to what the Emperor will do or may do, than is allowed to come out in newspapers, and his failure over the Education Bill has given a rough shake to public con- fidence. It was thought that, at all events, when he had taken a line, he would consistently march along it; but this is evidently not the case. The eyes which turn to Prince Bismarck turn, it is true, with regret rather than anticipation, for the Prince grows very old, and could only be summoned in some dark day when his master, with all his courage, acknowledged an impasse ; but still, his disapproval has on large sec- tions of the population a depressing effect. So has the Parliamentary muddle, not because Parliament is very important in Germany, for it is not, but because its power- lessness and inability to form a resolute majority destroy one ground of confidence, and distress that section of Germans who still hope to unite Royal power with a genuinely responsible Government. Most depressing of all, however, is the constant increase of Socialism,—the spread, that is, of a party which is not national, is not prepared to accept institutions, and is not, in the opinion of the majority, sensible. The Socialists create an alarm which, outside Germany. is considered disproportioned to their strength, but which many reflective Germans explain by defining Socialism as an expression of widely diffused discontent, created in theory by too great inequalities in society, but in reality by the genuine poverty of the people, which makes even good food difficult of attainment. The Germans have got beyond the rye-eating stage of civilisation; yet, partly because the soil is not rich, partly because the national expenditure is too heavy, and partly because of the laws " protecting " grain, an immense section of the people must be content with rye. There is doubt and uneasi- ness in Germany, as there is also in France, where the Government is afraid of the Radical Party, and therefore keeps striking the Church ; afraid of the Anarchists, who may, men think, excite such a panic that society will take refuge in a dictatorship ; and afraid of the Labour Party, against which it is arranging pre- cautions for the 1st of May as serious and extensive as if it dreaded an insurrection. We believe ourselves that most of the alarm is unreal, the substantial demand of the French artisans being only for shorter hours, and in itself reasonable, and Anarchists who will sacrifice themselves being only a desperate group ; but nothing can get rid of the French belief that Behemoth will one day charge; that, in better words, the Commune is always possible.; and the anxiety never dies away. God knows what M. Loubet expects, but he has again consulted all the Prefects, and has arranged for the use of troops almost as carefully as might be done on a rumour of invasion. France is certainly not at rest, nor is Italy, though there the disquiet is of a different kind. The difficulty in Italy is financial. The revenue, which does not all reach the Treasury, is distinctly insufficient for its wants ; the civil expenditure cannot be stopped without a Parliamentary 'amide, the whole cultivated class resenting a suppression of offices ; and it has hitherto been found impossible to re- duce the Army. As, however, the people will not bear more taxation, this is at last to be tried ; but it is very doubtful if the effort will be sufficiently resolute, and meanwhile the Government is weak, and the statesmen afraid that unless the course of the State is changed, which is profoundly difficillt, the financial trouble may prove insuperable. It will probably not do so, the Government accepting a reduction of the Army, abandoning Africa, and postponing every outlay that can be postponed on public works ; but meanwhile there is a general sense of unrest and apprehension. It is not that an overturn is expected, but that everybody is in low spirits about public affairs, and inclined to expect bad occurrences. Italians are not looking out for a fire in the house, or for a declaration of bankruptcy, but for a long period of fruitless effort, and unsatisfied wishes for more ease.
The ease, we fear, will not come yet awhile. The Continent, and in a less degree England also, is feeling the effect of the economic changes which have been going on steadily for three years. The recrudescence of Protection everywhere except in Great Britain, limits and disarranges commerce, and frightens the spending classes out of out- lays the absence of which is severely felt by the poor, who, outside these islands, are paying artificial prices for the necessaries of life. The Treasuries are feeling poor; while the demand for higher wages, everywhere made, sensibly increases an expenditure already forced up by the immense military preparations to a figure which can hardly be borne. A reduction of credit is going on at the same time, the financiers who feed trade with capital drawing in their "commitments," so that new enterprise is more difficult, or is attempted with a serious decline both in energy and hopefulness. All this is synchronous with the spread in every country of a desire for more comfort, and of an idea that somewhere there must exist in a reorganisation of society, either violently through anarchy, or peaceably through huge combinations, the means of making all who work with their hands more happy and less anxious for the future. The spread of a wild hope, in fact, which may be well-founded or ill-founded, but which cannot in any case be quickly realised or dispelled, coincides with a period which, for very numerous classes of society, is one of more or less acute and audible distress. There is a position everywhere resembling that of England for a few years after the Great War, when nobody was content or quiet or indisposed towards pes- simist apprehension. The uneasiness is not acute yet, and the impossibility of insurrection tends to promote en- durance ; but, outside Austria, there are signs of "lean years," and of a consequent strain on the European com- munities, which they are not bearing particularly well. The old quiescence has disappeared, and while every evil is attributed to society, there is less clearness of view than ever as to how society can be amended. Our old reformers may have been narrow when they expected so much from the removal of all restrictions,—restrictions on trade, on combination, on the free use of goods, on political speech and action ; but at least they knew definitely what they Wanted. The new reformers as yet do not, and the grumbling, while it grows louder, grows also more confused.
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