TOPICS OF THE DAY.
MR. GLADSTONE AND THE CONCERT OF EUROPE. THOSE who believe, as most Tories seem to do, that the Eastern Question has fallen into temporary abeyance, that the Sultan has dissolved the Concert of Europe, and that Greece must submit to discomfiture, are living, as we read the facts, in a fools' paradise. The statesmen are only silent because they are waiting to see whether the Sultan dare break his promises once more ; the Powers are only " separating " because journalists—many of them Magyars, many more Jews, and many guided by secret impulses, not always political—hasten to say they are divided ; and the populations of the Balkan stand quiet, only because they are expecting ; there is no true lull, and no final break-up of the European combination. Whether the Sultan intends to surrender Dulcigno, or defend Dulcigno, or instigate theAlbanians to fight for Dulcigno, is, as we write, not proved, either by writings or by events. We think, however, that after the usual amount of delay and attempts at chicane, and reservations put forward to be rejected, and remonstrances from the Ambassadors, the Sultan will satisfy the Montenegrin claim. He cares nothing about Dulcigno,—except as a stalking- horse. From our point of view, nothing could be more satis- factory than that he should break faith, because the Statesmen of Europe would then at last perceive that negotiation with Turkey was waste of energy and time,—that they must decide upon a plan for the settlement of the East, and carry it out without further parley, and, if necessary, by force ; but we have a respect for the caution of Tarkish diplomacy, -which is guided by Greeks and Armenians with brains, and do not expect to see the Porte resort to so unbear- able a form of defiance. Dulcigno will be surrendered, but then the Greek question will be in the front ; and Europe must settle it in concert, or incur all the dangers it has been striving for three years to avoid. The Greeks have called out their forces, as they ought to have done two years ago, and their King—fresh from interviews with the most powerful statesmen of Europe, and himself in incessant correspondence with thoroughly informed personages—has announced in a speech from the Throne that the Army will not be disbanded until the establishment of the new order of things " in the territory awarded to Greece." As the Army strains the resources, open or secret, of the Treasury of Athens, this means that Greece will press her claim at once, and will, if it is not conceded, occupy the territory and leave it to the Turks to turn her out, by means which if successful would irritate Europe, and enable the Athenians to appeal with effect to the cosmopolitan Revolution. This menace of action will probably be described as a mere menace, intended to help the diplomatists ; but it is serious, for the Greeks have passed the stage of compromise ; and the King is well aware, and all his kinsfolk, connactions, and fellow-royalties are well aware, that he must either secure his provinces, or go, as King Otho went. He must either obtain the territories awarded by Europe through the diplomatic aid of Europe, or he must declare war, and with that declaration the whole of Eastern Europe is again placed in the crucible. The Greeks, although in an access of foolishness at variance with their whole history, they trusted the promises of the West, and abstained from war when war would have given them all, are still able men, who understand the situation, and know that if they can do nothing else, they can set the Balkan penin- sula on fire. War would not have been declared ten days, before insurrection would be universal in European Turkey from the Danube to Salonica, and every Power except Germany afraid of an unfavourable result.
We ask all reasonable Tories—and even that curious class, the Englishmen who hate the Greeks because they think them Athenian, rather than Spartan—whether they believe that European statesmen want a situation like this, that they are anxious for a general scramble, that they would be glad to see all ambitions once more stirred to mad- ness. Why, it was to avoid this very contingency, to damp down the powder known to be accumulated and on the point of explosion, that the men who really prepared the Treaty of Berlin drew up that document, paid Austria her enormous price, released the South Slavons from direct oppression, and made the promises to Greece after- wards formulated in the Supplementary Conference at Berlin. They have just the same motives for action now as they had then, and they do not get tired of a policy, like newspaper readers, because it takes time and is dull. They must act, and act in concert, or stand ready for an incalcul- able explosion. The Tories say England will not advance; but they know, as they write, that she will ; that the Greek cause is to English Liberals far more than even that of the Southern Slays ; and that Mr. Gladstone never recedes from a serious design. They say France will withdraw ; but already, as the day for the meeting of the Chamber approaches, and M. Gam- betta's return is expected, the fluent advocates of retreat in Paris change their tone, and begin to doubt if the ma- jority has really, from " fear of foreign complications " deserted its only leader. Suppose by one fiery speech he wakes the sleeping pride of France ? Does history show the French people insensible to the claims of their own dignity, their own pledges—for at Berlin M. Waddington was the Greek advocate—and their own theories of right ? The Tories say Austria is reluctant, and quote with pride all manner of newspapers, especially Magyar newspapers, in proof ; but in foreign politics, as we pointed out in 1878, there is no Austria, only a House of Hapsburg. That House will be governed now, as ever, by its own interest, and will conceive that its interest now, as ever, lies in getting all it can without great wars, and will know that if it stands by England, France, Russia, and Italy, its title to its new provinces will pass un- questioned ; while if it does not, the result may be a struggle, and in struggles Austria loses the territories which by diplo- macy she is always acquiring. How many provinces in that wonderful heritage have been acquired by war ? When it comes to the point, the Hapsburg Emperor, half whose sub- jects and three-fourths of whose devoted subjects are Slav, will not desire to see all Slays turn to the Romanoffs, as the only family who can be relied on to limit Ottoman pretensions even in the field. Russia, though no cordial friend of the Greeks, is compelled by her history to act on their side, and by her present situation to welcome any post- ponement of so terrible a struggle as one for the Balkan peninsula would necessarily be ; and Italy adheres to the policy of English Liberals. The explosion is, we believe, so feared on all hands, that when Mr. Gladstone once more proposes that peace should be maintained by carrying out the European award—agreed to in substance by Lord Beaconsfield's representatives at Berlin—the Powers will be constrained to follow, rather than by withdrawing leave open that most dangerous solution of all,—that Turkey and the peninsula be left alone, to take counsel of their mutual hatred and their common despair. Greece has allies other than the Powers. His enemies write as if Mr. Gladstone, who, man of genius as he is, and fiery orator as he is, is also a Scotchman by both sides, and " keeps counsel " better than any man alive, so that he can make even of a Budget a thunderbolt from the blue, were obeying a fanatic impulse of Philhellenism. So they thought, when he cut with a blow the supports from under the throne of the Neapolitan Bourbons. He is, no doubt, personally Philhellene ; but as the head of the British Government, he is striving towards peace, to avoid that great war which, if the Ottomans are left to do as they please with their subjects, is almost immediately inevitable, even the Armenians having for- mally announced that, as their "reduction to a minority" is intended, they must defend themselves by means they have hitherto avoided. One would fancy, to read some writers, that the British Government had only to be inactive to produce peace in the East, the true situation being that if that Govern- ment is inactive, there will be war probably within six weeks, certainly within six months. There is no peaceful road out of the situation, except that Europe should carry out the Treaty of Berlin in spirit, as well as letter, under the leadership of the British Government, and Europe for the time strongly desires peace.
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