THE SERVIAN SCANDAL. been. " If we were Germans, again,
we should note with alarm the extreme imitation of the French at the Russian Ambassador's acceptance of the German Emperor's invita- den to dine with him at Metz. William II. probably Meant nothing by his selection of Metz for his dinner party, for Metz has been German for thirty years, and the unlucky Russian could not have refused without an impos- sible breach of international etiquette ; but the French regard the little festivity as an insult, and are bitterly chagrined because the Russian representative had not a convenient influenza. Russia is our ally, they say, we are this week lending her sixteen millions, we support her policy in China, and nevertheless she pardons the rape of Alsace-Lorraine. That incident means that France has not given up the hope of the revanche, that she intends to regain her provinces when opportunity is favourable, and that she expects when the hour arrives the full support of the ally whom for the present she is feeding with flattery and cash. The incident seems to Englishmen rather small to provoke such a display of feeling; but France humiliated is France revengeful, and with a revengeful Power on one side and an ambitious one on the other, Germans can hardly be either tranquil or content. Perhaps of all the clouds, however, the most threatening one is hovering over Servia. It is hardly possible with any respect for decorum to enter upon the scandals which are shaking the dynasty in Servia, but the broad facts can be stated in language familiar to all who have read. English history. King Alexander, who has no successor, no relatives eligible for the throne, and no strong hold on his people, who think that his marriage showed him a weak man, has been for months past expecting an heir. He has altered the Constitution to allow daughters to succeed ; he has asked the Czar to be sponsor at the font for the expected child ; and he has accepted. with many thanks sixteen cradles sent up to the Palace by as many districts of Servia. Queen Draga, however, has deceived herself, as our own Queen Mary Tudor did under similar circumstances ; there will, the doctors say, be no child, either now or ever ; and the King in his rage and. dis- appointment talks with one breath of divorce, with the next of abdication, and with the third of full pardon for his wife, who, doubtless, would willingly have borne the baby if she could. The statesmen advise divorce for the reasons of State which prevailed with Napoleon ; the populace, like our own populace in 1688, delights itself with a warming-pan romance ; and there is a strong movement' throughout Servia, against the Obrenovitches. One section of the people is in favour of the descendants of Karageorge, who liberated Servia ; a second would elect Prince Nicholas of Montenegro, who is Servian by race, and has Russia behind him; and a third, just now the most active of all, declares for a Republic.
The scandal would not signify much, or the tumults either, if the results could be confined. to Servia; but, unhappily, that is not the case. Two great military Empires think their interests and their prestige so far engaged in the fate of the little kingdom that they would not tolerate either a Republic or a hostile Monarch, and. their struggles, at present only diplomatic, may be—in certain contingencies would. be—transferred to the field. Neither would bear a Republic so near their borders. If it were anarchical, as old Conservative statesmen, of course, think it would become, it would be a constant source of anxiety ; and. if it were tranquil and successful its example might be most dangerous upon the States around, particularly Bosnia, Bulgaria, aid Macedonia, one of which is governed as a military province, another is fiercely discontented. with its Prince, while the third is a Christian dependency of Turkey, and, there- fore; of necessity seething with rebellion. A Republic would, consequently, be put down at all • hazards ; but that is not such' an easy matter as it looks. Sufficient Servians might; no doubt, be killed without much trouble; but who is to do the killing,—Austria or Russia, or both? If either is trusted to do the work, that one will try to keep time-province; while if both do it at once, their armies are, in their present temper, almost -sure 'to clash. On the other hand, if a new prince is to be " elected," both must agree upon the "choice of the people," and how is that agreement -to be secUred ? The Karageorgeyitches, whom the people mightlike; are stipPosed"to be' too weak for the Place.. Prince Nicholas; who would* rule strongly, and possibly well, is dreaded by the upper &Lases in Servia, and is so nearly a Russian Prince that Austria would think the principality an outwork of her enemy ; while an Austrian Archduke, though not equally dreaded by Russia, would be equally disliked. It would. be necessary to select an outsider, which means a German Princeling ; and though that seems easy, the class being numerous and estirient, it is really very difficult. German Princes do not succeed very well in the Balkans, Prince Otho in Greece, Prince Alexander and Prince Ferdinand in Bul- garia, having proved failures ; while Prince Charles of Hohenzollern, though he has succeeded as a Sovereign in Roumania, is not fully trusted either in St. Petersburg or Vienna, and but that he enjoys a measure of protection from his great kinsfolk, might be overthrown. It would be necessary to try some new man, and as the throne of Servia is not very tempting to any Prince who dislikes dependence, and. as he must be tolerably able to get along at all, and as when once enthroned he would. infallibly break all his secret agreements, the choice is a difficult one, more difficult even than the choice of a Royal bride, which has proved the ruin of so many diplomatists.
We suppose, and indeed. it seems probable from the most recent accounts, that immense pressure will be exerted to postpone any catastrophe, that King Alexander will be calmed and Queen Draga soothed, that the states- men will be admonished, that the populace will be terrorised, and that all for the present will go on much as before. Neither Nicholas H. nor Francis Joseph desires war, and even a Servian revolutionary will hesitate to defy both of those potentates at once. But what a flood of light the incident throws on the dangers which menace the peace of Europe from accidents over' which statesmen have no control, from the liability of little Courts to rot, and, we must add, from the restless ambition of the great masters of armies. Neither Russia nor Austria would. be directly injured if the Balkan States were allowed to federate themselves under King Charles of Roumania, who is a good. soldier and a wise administrator, and were thus allowed to develop their resources in security; but Russia would see an impediment in her road to Constanti- nople, and Austria a menace to her hope of Oriental trade through Salonka, and so sixteen millions of fairly indus- trious white men, who would be peaceful and contented if they could, have to suffer for generations. Their noisome little Courts usually forbid them to prosper, and if they try to get rid of them they are flooded with foreign armies, and. compelled to accept with seeming willingness the nominees of Powers who do not wish them to be indepen- dent, or too prosperous, or too well regarded in the world. We know of nothing more discreditable alike to the states- manship and to the philanthropy of Europe than the con- dition of the Balkan States, unless it be Continental conduct in China; but for the present remedy there is none. ,
Previous page
