PRINCE BISMARCK.
THE resignation of Prince Bismarck, whether it be real or only a scene in high political comedy, is an event of European importance. If it be real, one great security for the peace of Europe will have been removed ; and if it be a comedy, another straggle between the great German statesman and his master must have reached its height, and may end in a momentous victory for either side. Let us first of all accept it as real, and then see what it means. Prince Bismarck, it is assumed, wearied out by daily conflicts with the Prussian Ministers, with the State Governments, and with members of the Government of the Empire, one of whom—the Minister of Marine, General Stosch—has just inflicted on him a public defeat, has tendered his resignation or demanded leave of ab- sence for a year, and his request has been complied with se completely that his offices have been distributed afresh. The Chancellorship is temporarily abolished or transferred in- formally to the Emperor, no person being appointed to that great office ; and two men, Baron von Billow and Herr Camp- hausen, dividing between them its home and foreign attributes. That means that the Empire is to be governed for the present by Ministers who do not form a Cabinet, but are responsible, each in his department, to the Emperor, who thus holds the springs of all power in his hands, and becomes actual as well as responsible Head of the Executive. That change, obviously a great one, is interpreted in England as of peaceful omen, but why should it mean peace ? One great restraint upon the Russian Court, its dread of Prince Bismarck, is removed. The Emperor, who has never swerved in his affection for his nephew, becomes more powerful than ever; his assurances will be trusted where his Chancellor's were studied with suspicion, and his general opinion is known to be that the condition of Turkey is a scandal to Europe and civilisation. The mere removal of an immense force, too, like Prince Bismarck, increases the sense of independence in every Court ; and if he has really resigned, we shall expect to see the action of his rival and friend Prince Gortschakoff be- come much more vigorous. Then we fear the instinctive alarm which seems to have passed through France is in a measure well founded. It is the fashion in Eng- land, when mischief is on foot, to attribute it to Prince Bismarck, but there can be little doubt that in the great internal struggle of May last, when peace and war hung in the balances, Prince Bismarck fought stoutly upon the side of peace against the military party, and aided by Czar Alexander and the Emperor himself, succeeded in making his views prevail. We do not believe, cannot believe, that the Emperor, who has been so successful in his later life, will again tempt fortune by an invasion for which there is no need ; but there can be no doubt that the Chancellor's retirement will redouble the strength and the energy of the military party, to which the Emperor himself belongs by habit of mind, and which, as we read the situation, has already induced him to reject Prince Bismarck's claim to be obeyed by the head of a fighting department. The Navy is not yet a power in Germany, but the Army is, and we suspect we shall find, when the whole truth is known, that the Army, through Marshal von Moltke, Prince Charles, and its other chiefs, stood strongly by General &each in his resistance to any control except from his Sovereign and Commander-in-Chief. Prince Bismarck complains that the General yielded to the Reichstag, but not to him, but the Reichstag must have been supported by the Emperor, of whom the Chancel- lor could not openly complain. At all events, it may be taken as certain that the military party is far less reasonable about war than the statesman party, and that the statesman party is seriously weakened by the retirement of Prince Bismarck, even if he only withdraws for a long period from Court.
But has he retired I We doubt it greatly. Statesmen of Prince Bismarck's calibre always find life insipid out of power. So far from the moment being unattractive to a great man, or one likely to tempt him to recruit a weary brain, it is one full of the gravest possibilities, a moment when peace and war are hanging in the balance, and a fortnight may see a great Government pledged to undertakings which, successful or unsuccessful, must seriously modify the position of all States. Easter is not passed in Russia yet, and at Easter it is believed on all sides that final resolutions must be taken. A voluntary retirement from the helm in such an hour is in- consistent with all we know of Prince Bismarck's character. With all his powers, there is in him a little of the " John P. Robinson." It is far more probable that, knowing great events to be once more imminent, he has chosen his favourite method of bringing his value home to his master's mind, by leaving him in the hands of men incompetent to manage affairs in any but the most ordinary way. They cannot control the Parliament as Prince Bismarck does. They do not know those far-reaching plans which the Prince is pursuing in every Court of Europe. They have not a sovereign hold on the confidence of all the common folk of Germany, now beginning to be distracted by the economic pressure of the times. They are not feared by all the statesmen of Europe. The Emperor, even if he is not free from a trace of that self-conceit which Prince Bismarck attributed to all Kings, and which the wonderful events of his life have had such a tendency to produce, at least understands the difference between men, and must, if he is human, feel the loss of the advice of his greatest counsellor. He may resist the feelihg, but it is the specialty of his position that he can be personally jealous of no one, can suffer nothing from yielding to his own best judgment, and cannot be suspected by the Army of inattention to its interests. The quasi-absolutism which Prince Bismarck claims may be annoying to his colleagues and wearisome to the military party, but it cannot hurt the Sovereign, who is still Head, whoever the counsellor may be whom he chooses to consider first. The Emperor, the moment he feels the vacuum created in Europe by his great Minister's retirement, may recall him, and if he recalls him, must give him the means of crushing that departmental as well as geographical Particularism of which he constantly complains. It is this calculation upon which, as we conceive, Prince Bismarck relies, and it is by no means certain that it will deceive him. There is no chance that the Emperor will sacri- fice Germany to any prepossession or any annoyance of his own, and the possibility that he can let his Chancellor go, and yet, so far as Germany is concerned, not feel the loss, is one which Prince Bismarck is nearly sure to have accurately estimated. He must have weighed his political clerks in the balance long since. It is difficult to imagine any Prussian Minister taking his place, or exercising any influence approaching to his own. Baron von Billow is but his most trusted Secretary. Herr Camphausen is a bureaucrat, more or less successful, but exceedingly unpopular. Herr Falk is identified with a policy which irritates one-third of Germany. Count Arnim is politically dead. Prince Hohenlohe, though a wise and successful man, acceptable to the Emperor, and assisted in German Court feeling by his exceptional rank, is a Catholic, though a moderate one, and could not go on with the accepted policy. Marshal von Moltke is overburdened already, and his nomination, though it might not mean war—very great Generals being rarely enthusiasts for that method of arranging difficulties—would send a shock of alarm through Europe, felt equally in Paris and St. Petersburg. There is a possibility, we are told, of Count Stolberg, a man not sufficiently known outside the Empire, who has been trusted with most delicate and difficult work, and is believed to be Prince Bismarck's one strong man ; but then the Prince must have considered him among the rest, and have decided not to fear. It is difficult to disbelieve that he has reconnoitred the whole ground, that he has assured himself of speedy recall, and that he proposes to return, more vigorous, more determined, and less hampered than ever, to pursue some policy which he considers worth all these exertions, these intrigues, and it must be added, these risks to his own popularity and power. He must be wearying his master, though the patience of the Emperor with him is untiring ; and he may weary out German opinion, which hitherto has regarded him as the in- dispensable man. What that policy may be we do not attempt to decide, but we cannot believe it is limited to a decision that he will not tolerate a Minister of Marine who does not under- stand that he is responsible to the Chancellor as well as to his Sovereign. Prince Bismarck, if only resigning for effect, must intend at least to be the Emperor's lieutenant in every Depart- ment of the State, and that implies direct control over the Military party.
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