THE POSITION OF THE SULTAN. E can imagine no political
position more painful than that of the Sultan at the present moment, or one in which there is less hope of speedy improvement. Englishmt n are apt to think of him as the most absolute of monarchs, and in one way that is true ; but he is absolute as chief of a caste, and that caste is at this moment raging with an intelligible exasperation and a not unreasonable despair. The old Ottoman Pashas, the men who are really Mussulmans, and sympathise at heart with Asiatic ideas, who can directly influ- ence both the soldiery and the mob, and who are not personally afraid of anybody, are the men who support the Sultan's throne ; and to any old Ottomans, the outlook just at present must be most deplorable. The whole world must seem to them in a conspiracy to rob them of their own. There is Russia, still encamped within sight of their capital, a city which they regard almost as Catholics regard Rome, and which begets in its prosperous few a quite peculiar.affection, that has repeatedly modified politics. There is Austria, their old friend, invading two provinces, subduing or expelling the last Mussulman aristocrats, and obviously determined to keep in perpetuity all the fine lands which, in Ottoman judgment, she has stolen. There are the Bulgarians, mere slaves, doing just as they like in Bournelia, under the shadow of the hereditary Northern enemy. There are those pestilent Greeks— mere traders and clerks—asking for territory they did not con- quer, and islands which have never ceased to give trouble to rulers whose title as conquerors, and Mahommedans to boot, is entirely unimpeachable. There are those Germans, whom nobody ever heard of before, and whom no Mussulman has ever fought, ordering the Sultan to do this and that, and backing up every unpleasant demand about anything and from anybody. There are those Armenians, mere clerks, people who never were hated, because they were so subservient, actually in insurrection on their own account, as if the very horses were charging on dismounted cavaliers. The Jews will be storming the Mosque of Omar, next. There are those Arabs in Bagdad, who ought to be the brethren of the Ottomans, but who are taking just this opportunity to say that they have been skinned too closely already, and will endure the operation no more. And finally, there are those most detestable of all races, the English, who love the Mussulmans so much that they took all India from them. They did not fight for Turkey ; they did not get anything perceptible for Turkey ; they have taken away Cyprus from Turkey ; they are ousting Turks in Egypt, even from the Treasury ; and now they want to oust Turkish officials from all Asia Minor. The notion that the British are doing all this in the true interest of Turkey is to old Ottomans unintelligible, if only because for them there is no Turkey, but only Turks ; and they regard the pro- ceeding as at once needless, suspicious, and impertinent. Why should the English, who ousted the Great Mogul under pretext of protecting him, wish so ardently to protect the Sultan, unless they, like the Russians, intend to be his heirs ? They give no proof of sincerity, they send no troops, they declare no war on Russia, they help Austria to plunder, they are made of money, and yet they will not lend even a few millions ! The whole world is against the Ottoman.
The bitterness is greatly increased by a novel sense of im- potence. The true Ottoman does not care particularly if the whole world is against him, if only he may fight the whole world, and conquer or fall, as Destiny or Allah please ; but this is exactly what he cannot do. He has men enough and to spare still, brave men, men who if they saw a fair chance of rebuilding their empire would as soon die doing it, as live quietly and die "like mules." Nothing has come out more strongly during the war than the accuracy of Midhat Pasha's calculation, in his speech delivered before the Grand Divan, as to the resources in men at the Sultan's disposal. He was wrong in saying Turkey had 600,000 "soldiers," if by soldiers he meant Regulars, for there was no such number ; but of fighting men of all kinds Turkey must have lost already more than 600,000, by disease, hunger, and battle, and there are multitudes still left. If the Sultan could at this moment collect and drill the Regulars, Bashi- Bazouks, Circassians, Rhodope insurgents, Bosnian insurgents, Albanians, and Mussulmans in the Greek provinces who are actually under arms, and fighting in one way or another every day, his army in Europe alone would exceed that which France or Germany maintains on a peace footing. He has enough men to conquer back all he has lost. But the Ottoman perceives clearly that these men will not win ; that time, and money, and organisa- tion are all wanting ; that the round hat has something which the fez has not ; that it is useless to proclaim war with the world, and so die fighting, for he would get no fair chance of battle. The English ships would destroy him, themselves unhurt. The Russian armies cannot be resisted by undrilled men, however brave. The Austrians have marched on resistlessly over the very flower of Islam,—the Begs, whom the Sultans for four hundred years have never fairly mastered. Open battle is not to be thought of without an ally, and there is no possible ally, not even Russia, who wants open battle. As to diplomacy, it has ceased to benefit Turkey. For sixty years it has been possi- ble for the Ottoman, when hard pressed, to make Europe quarrel over him ; but now the Great Powers are too afraid of one another to fight, and if they discuss, discussion always ends in robbing Ottomans of something. The first Conference ended in a proposal that Christians should be masters in Europe, and the second in a decree taking eleven millions of people away from the Sultan's rule. Nor when all this has been done is there any peace, as the Ottoman understands peace. Not to mention insurgents, whom he cares little about, and would slaughter down in comfort, if only allowed his own way, there are the Ambassadors, who are worse than ever, worse far than all the insurgents. It is illegal to impale an Ambassador, yet no day passes without some Ambassador making life dis- gusting by complaints, or remonstrances, or offers, or advice. An old Ottoman is like an Englishman in this at all events,—that he does not want to live at the price of being "advised" by a bullying foreigner for five hours at a stretch, two or three days every week. Then the Ambassadors want their agents to be at the top, to the destruction of all Ottoman supremacy. There are the Russians, appointing Bulgarians and Armenians to everything in Roumelia. There are the Austrians, appointing Dalmatians to everything in Bosnia. There are the English, insisting that Englishmen shall be appointed to everything in Asia Minor, and alleging that the men who fought at Plevna are not fit even to command newly levied corps of gendarmerie. (This, at least, is what the 7'e1egrap1i reports as Sir A. Layard's first demand.) Those Kafirs are all for Turkey, but they never appoint Ottomans to any posts, but say, as their final conclusion, that Ottomans are not fit to be Judges, or fiscal officers, or even captains of Asiatic mounted police. What are they fit for, then, in their own Empire ? Clearly, to furnish food for powder, soldiers, so that European officers may draw good pay, and give to their betters any orders they please. We really do not wonder that the Ottoman caste is irri- tated, or that the Sultan, who is first of all their repre- sentative, should think treason possible, and should vacil- late from party to party, and should one day insult the Austrian Army, and the next offer Novi Bazar to the Austrians, or should to-day refuse to see Sir Austen Layard, and to-morrow concede to him in appearance all he demands, any more than we wonder that Chiefs of De- partments, utterly wearied out, should stave off further worry by pouring out impossible promises, and then leaving them unfulfilled. The position now occupied by the Sultan, as re- presentative of the caste, and the Pashas as his advisers, is a radically untenable one. Europe is asking him that he should use the Ottomans, who fight well, as a governing caste, with- out giving them any of the advantages and rewards usually consequent on good fighting. The Ottomans are to keep Constantinople, and the Greek Provinces, and Asiatic Turkey, and the Islands in order ; but are not to make Islam ascendent, are not to tax the people, are not to command, and not to judge, and not to govern,—Europeans performing these latter functions, and settling their own salaries for doing so. Just imagine George II. informing the Orangemen, while they still held Ireland, that they were to continue to govern, but could have no appointments, and no majority either in municipal or in national councils, the position reserved for them being, in fact., that of private soldiers. We frankly acknowledge that if Ottomans like that position the pro- blem is solved, and Lord Beaconsfield is right, for Turkey may be regenerated ; but does anybody seriously believe the Ottomans will agree to anything of the kind ? Of course they will not—would not, if they were only half as proud as they are—and the situation therefore is reduced to this absurdity :—Turkey cannot continue to exist, unless it is "reformed." The only hope of reforming it consists in sub- stituting European for Ottoman officers in all important positions. But Turkey cannot continue to exist either, unless Ottomans will fight for it, and Ottomans will not fight if they are thrust by Europeans from all important positions. The problem is, in fact, insoluble, and all efforts which do not begin with a change in the central Government whereby the Ottoman caste shall become conscious that Ottoman rule has ended are foredoomed to failure, even though the Sultan, in a moment of weariness, should allow Sir Austen Layard to write out a new Convention.
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