TOPICS OF THE DAY.
UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM.
DR. DILLON, the Vienna correspondent of the Daily Telegraph, writing in Thursday's issue, uses the following language : " Every section of the commercial, industrial, and political community is beginning to breathe freely now that public confidence in the maintenance of peace is seen to be grounded on concrete acts of Russia and Austria." Dr. Dillon goes on to state that we shall soon see physical proofs of this better state of things in a gradual demobilization by both Powers. " This enormous change for the better " is in a large measure, be tells us, due to the Emperor of Austria's auto- graph letter to the Tsar—a message the effect of which was so strangely misrepresented by a large part of the Continental press. The Times correspondent at Vienna, if less confident in manner, is in essentials hardly less optimistic than Dr. Dillon, and, taking the observa- tions of the best- informed experts as a whole, we can say without fear of contradiction that they support to the full the optimistic conclusions as to the immediate future which were set forth by us last week. We regret to say, however, that our general pessimism as to the chances of Europe escaping from a conflagration in the distant future also holds the field. The great, restless, unsatisfied State remains at heart as restless and as unsatisfied as ever, and the suspicions and anxieties of the other Powers show no signs of abating. But while this spirit prevails, Europe at the very best can only remain in a state of unstable equilibrium. The tendencies which produce a catastrophe are always there and always at work, and though they are for the moment held in check by stronger forces, it is almost impossible to overcome the impression that the influences making for change and confusion are stronger than those opposed to them.
Take as an example of what we mean, the spirit of the curious letter signed " Germanicus," which we publish in another column. As we have said in our comment to that letter we must not be supposed for a moment to attach any undue importance to it. It would be most unfair to regard it as a representative letter. It is not that, but rather the somewhat whimsical dream of an individual —of a crank if you will. We fear, however, that this piece of somewhat Byzantine Machiavellianism cannot be dismissed as wholly negligible. There is a party, though no doubt numerically very much in the minority, which holds that the time is coming for Germany to strike. Such a spirit is always dangerous, though when controlled by such masters of practical statecraft as Bismarck it is, at any rate, accountable to common sense. Unfortunately at present there are no Bismarcks in Germany, but only a blind feeling that Germany in order to fulfil her destiny has got to hit somebody or something very hard and very soon. Unfortunately, too, the mass of Germans, though not in the least war- like, are fully convinced that war is and must continue to be an instrument of policy. It is quite possible, then, that the nation as a whole might get it into their heads that the people who talk about striking when the proper time comes really know what they want and what they are about. In fine, the nation, imagining that there is some Bismarck behind the scenes, might allow the men who usurp the forms without the substance of Bismarck's Realpolitik to have their way. That way is over the precipice. More- over, Germany is quite strong enough to drag others over with her. Take for example the rumours in regard to the future of Denmark which have arisen owing to the visit of the Danish King to Berlin. It is probable that the Danes are being confronted with this dilemma : " Either you must pass into the German orbit in foreign affairs or must be considered one of the enemies of Germany and accept all the consequences of that position." Placed in such a predicament, it will hardly be a subject for wonder if the Danes yield to the only Power with which they have a land frontier—the Power which could overrun their green fields and golden forests with such terrible ease and swiftness. But though Britain may understand the Danish dilemma, and will not be so unfair as to feel citterness or antagonism towards the Danish people, it is impossible to shut our eyes to the fact that if Denmark is to pass under German influence there must at this end also be consequences—consequences which may be disastrous to the land from whose people so large a portion of our island population descends. The relations between Denmark and this country seem to be for ever crossed by a tragic destiny.
Although the equilibrium of Europe is so unstable, it must not be forgotten that the situation may develop in a way which, while seeming dangerous in the extreme, may tend to maintain the balance a good deal longer. When peace is made between Turkey and the Allies, and Russia and Austria-Hungary have demobilized, we shall at once be face to face with the future of Asiatic Turkey. Admittedly that future must be dark and pre- carious. If things go well, it can only be through something happening which has never yet happened in history, namely, the reform of a purely Mohammedan Power from inside and by its own volition. But if things go badly they are almost certain also to go slowly, and this will very likely mean that the Powers will be too busy watching events in Asiatic Turkey, each trying to shape them to its own advant- age, to stir at home. The Powers for a time will be, as it were, hypnotized by the writhing and twisting waters of the Asiatic whirlpool. Nor is the Turkish drama the only spectacle which is likely to keep them occupied during the next year or two. Unless all the omens are faulty, some- thing is going to happen in Austria-Hungary, and something very momentous. The problem of house- keeping is said to be in the last resort contained in the question, " What shall you do with the cold mutton ? " The problem of Austria-Hungary can be expressed in the simple question : " What are you going to do with your Slays ? "
At present the position is almost ridiculous. In the Austro-Hungarian Empire there are some twenty-six millions of Slays, and yet for purposes of government and influence on high politics these twenty-six millions are practically invisible. Everybody knows and recognizes the German and Magyar influence in the Monarchy of the Hapsburgs. One is as strong as the other. Yet the Germans and the Magyars do not number more than some nine millions apiece. Is it likely, after the triumphant emergence of the Slav in the Balkans, that the most cultivated, the richest, and the best-educated section of the Slav race will be content much longer to sit like Cinderella in the corner among the potato peelings and the ashes ? Even if the Slays of the Hapsburg Empire only numbered two or three millions one would expect to hear of them. When their numerical power is so tremendous as it is, can we believe that they will for ever remain mute and inglorious ? Austria- Hungary cannot, in fact, any longer put off an answer to the question : " What are you going to do with your Slays " But what hope is there that the statesmen of the Hapsburg Empire will be able to rise to the occasion and find a real solution of the problem ? We are free to confess that we see very little hope indeed. But even if the worst happens, the attempts at a solution of the Slav problem in Austria-Hungary will probably give the whole world so much to think about, and the issue will be so dark and so doubtful, that here also the Great Powers may be hypnotised into doing nothing, at any rate for a time. They will none of them know how things are going to turn out, and therefore how they ought to act in their own interests. Slow catastrophes in nations some- times act like anaesthetics.
The trouble is that these conditions of divine, or • perhaps we should say infernal, twilight are too apt to. give the opportunity he requires to " the man of destiny." And with him come blood and misery, " fire, famine, and slaughter." " There don't seem many of that breed about though," will be the cynic's comment. No doubt, but unfortunately an epoch of muddle and mediocrity offers just the conditions which produce them.
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