PRINCE BISMARCK'S RESIGNATION : ITS RE SITLTS.
WE cannot but think that Prince Bismarck's resigna tion will prove, on the whole, and perhaps by degrees, unfavourable to continued peace. It is true that it is not equivalent to his death, and that he will remain_ while he lives a force in reserve for Germany ; and it is true also that his real successor, the Emperor himself, has immersed himself in an effort to solve most difficult and permanent social questions ; but there are two parties to every quarrel, and the effect of the event on the enemies of Germany must be considered first of all. They may believe that the Triple Alliance will be weakened, and they may be right in so believing. That alliance depends, no doubt, upon the permanent interests of the great States which entered into it, and so far cannot be affected by any change of Councillors in Berlin; but it also depends upon the judgments, prejudices, and even passions of many statesmen who have for years been influenced by the im- posing personality of the German Chancellor. They have been afraid of him, and yet have been able to work with him, it being one distinctive mark of Prince Bismarck as diplomatist, that he is willing to make large concessions to those who, as he considers, have made vital concessions to him. He did, for instance, it is believed in Vienna, make an immense concession to M. Tisza about the Balkan States, in return for the steady support accorded by the Hungarian Premier to the League of Peace. The Emperor of Austria, also, and the King of Italy held for Prince Bismarck what may be described as a feeling of personal deference ; and it is quite possible that with his departure, which leaves the Emperor of Austria the most experienced diplomatist in Central Europe, totally new causes of difference may arise. At all events, the diplomatists of Russia and France will hope so, and their efforts to sow dissension will be strongly revived, and will be aided by the silent but influential party which in each State still disapproves the Alliance. No clerical in Italy is heartily for it, and no aristocrat in Austria ; while even in Catholic Germany it is regarded with some mixture of feelings. Then Prince Bismarck is known to the peoples of the hostile States as he is to the peoples of Germany, and the awe of his unbending character and terribly large views is very deep. Russians and French- men know quite well that Prince Bismarck is not a military genius, and cannot give German troops the victory ; but then, they know also that if that victory is secured, it is the Prince who will dictate the terms of peace, and that he might run the risk of making them terribly severe. There will not be in the popular mind the same dread of more conventional statesmen, unable even to think out a reconstruction of Europe ; and as war with limited liability is the instinctive desire of angry nations, one of the great checks on war will be removed by the resignation. It will not be the less removed because the retiring Minister is a man satiated with success, whose life has been in many respects a dream-career, and who in his old age was little disposed to risk all the marvellous results he had secured. The new men who will come in with the new ruler will all have their spurs to win, and may consider a rash firmness essential to reputation. At all events, their enemies abroad will regard them less, and will cer- tainly consider that Germany guided by Prince Bismarck is a more dangerous foe than Germany guided by an Emperor whose judgment is as yet doubtful, while his intense energy is often accompanied and discoloured by a desire to monopolise the attention of the world. This, the removal of an overhanging source of dread or of reverence, will be the main result of Prince Bismarck's resignation, and it must in some degree, so to speak, loosen the bonds of Europe.
The second result will be to increase the uncertainties of politics. The Prince's successor, as we have said, will be the Emperor, and the German Emperor is in foreign politics still an unknown quantity. Even his ability is un- certain, though his energy is not, and whatever its extent, he cannot be Prince Bismarck over again. He may be his equal or his inferior, but he cannot be the same. He has had a totally different training, he lacks his Chancellor's long experience, and it is next to impossible that he should know the moving forces of Europe quite as well. He is full of modern ideas, perhaps of ideas belonging to the future, not of the ideas which Prince Bismarck brought down with him from an older regime. Besides, let him rule as he will, and work ever so hard, the Emperor must find new men to be his counsellors, and the characters, histories, and objects of those men are all unknown quantities. Each will have his quantum of influence on the world, and the very names of them will to that world be new. General Caprivi, for example, has been selected as Chancellor ; and we venture to assert that in England, outside the Admiralty, there were not ten men who, when the telegram reached London, knew that there was in Germany a General of that name who could be thought of for such a post. Though a veteran in years, and hitherto a successful organiser, he is, in such high office, and especially as Foreign Minister of Germany, a new man, with none of his qualities as yet revealed. It is a new regime which will arrive in Germany, and a new regime involves uncertainties of every kind, which will, as they are gradually perceived, increase the unrest not only on the Continent, but throughout the world. Reflect for a moment that this resignation may change the destiny of the Valley of the Nile, and of the whole of the races, kingdoms, and vast territories included in the vague words " East Africa," and " the Congo State."
And, lastly, the result upon Germany itself must be very great. We take it that the fountains of the great deep will there be broken up. The governing German feeling in politics for twenty years has been that Prince Bismarck was the necessary man. He had offended whole sections of the people—the Catholics of Germany, for example, form a third of the population,—he was detested by entire classes—witness the 1,400,000 Socialist votes thrown in the ballot of last month,—and he had made personal enemies innumerable ; but, nevertheless, a plebiscite taken at any moment since Sadowa would have replaced the Chancellor in power. That source of unity, solidity, and stolidity disappears with his resignation. Every kind of party will feel itself released. Every kind of ambition will develop new vigour. Every strong man now nearly hopeless because the Chancellor was against him, will see, or fancy he sees, a new career opened before his eyes. The bruit, the bustle, the confusion will be enor- mous, and from amidst it all new figures will emerge, to any of which the popular regard may by degrees attach itself. The Emperor cannot carry away the whole of it, however competent he may prove, nor can he exercise the Iron Chancellor's full repressive power. He has not his history to give weight to all his qualities. We should look in particular for a new development of Parliamentary life, and the rise of new Parliamentary parties, some of them perhaps even possessed of permanent vitality. Germany without her Chancellor will no more resemble Germany with him, than a school let loose will resemble a school in attendance on its professors. Carlyle has described in eloquent words the unexpected effects of the end of the Reign of Terror ; and though Prince Bismarck was no Terrorist, he had in his own country so great a silencing effect, that we may witness as unexpected results from his resignation of power. All the frogs will be feeling as if the stork had flown away. The course of the Government, too, must be materially changed, for the Emperor has ideas of his own, which may prove to be wiser or more foolish than Prince Bismarck's, but will at any rate be different. We have no wish to assail one whose greatness in his own sphere we fully acknowledge, just as his sun descends below the horizon ; but Prince Bismarck's internal government of Germany has never extorted our admiration. We cannot see what it has produced except Socialists—for others than he organised the German Army—and Socialism is no proof in a modern State of successful administration. His withdrawal will at all events allow of more liberty, and with liberty there will come variance, and possibly some license. All Germany has seemed for twenty years, to foreigners at all events, a homogeneous and comparatively silent body, devoted to organisation, but not thinking so much, or discussing so much, or producing nearly so much effect on European thought as before the Emperor William stepped on the stone throne of Charlemagne, with its feet of cannon-balls. With Prince Bismarck's resignation, this calm, which has been more or less the calm of a lake iced over, will be broken up : there will be movement, good or bad ; waves, even if they destroy boats ; the sound of moving waters ; and this may prove, in the long-run, the greatest of the results to spring from what in any case whatever must be a great historic event.
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