THE MILITARY SITUATION.
IT is very satisfactory to be able to say that the progress of the Allies in the field has been as great as was expected at that moment of sanguine hopes when Rumania entered the war. During the last three weeks there have, of course, been some occasions of doubt ; the German challenge to Rumania in the Dobrudja was a serious one, and if the Rumanians had allowed themselves to become distracted or flurried by the necessity to adapt their original plan of cam- paign they might well have found themselves in a mess. And that would have happened just at the critical time when the national temper, which counts for so much in the conduct of war, was receiving its first tone and form. One looked on with intense interest, not without some natural anxiety, to see how the Rumanian Staff would come through the un- expected ordeal that was forced upon them. That the German Staff created that degree of anxiety among the Allies was to their credit. The Dobrudja move was certainly clever. Although the Rumanian Army had the reputation of being the best trained and best equipped Army in the Balkans, there was always the possibility—war being a history of surprises—that the reputation would prove to be not quite well deserved. Since the Rumanians brilliantly helped the Russians to crush the Turkish resistance at Plevna nearly forty years ago, Rumania has not seriously taken up arms till now. Her easy compulsion of Bulgaria after the Balkan War was, of course, no test. But any one who doubted can doubt no longer. Rumania has composedly and methodically met the challenge in the Dobrudja without in any way relaxing her hold upon Transylvania, of which she has now occupied one-third. Seven thousand square miles conquered in a month is a record of which the Rumanians may be proud, and we heartily congratulate them upon it. They are con- ducting war upon two fronts with every sign of going about their work with the confident touch of men who have made themselves masters of their business.
We need not apologize for dealing with Rumania first, because gratification at the coolness of our new Allies is uppermost in our mind. Fighting elsewhere may be on a larger scale, and hold vaster issues, but the Rumanian fighting has had elements of uncertainty and unexpectedness which we do not find in those theatres of war where the programme has been long foreseen. Only three weeks ago the Kaiser congratu- lated the Kaiserin on the " decisive " German victory in the Dobrudja. By the time the German Chancellor made his speech in the Reichstag the decisive victory had become " brilliant," which is quite a humble word in the lexicon of German eulogy. What the next epithet will be in this sliding- scale of epithets designed to encourage Germans to subscribe to the new War Loan without feeling that they have been quite too outrageously deluded, we do not know. What we do know up to a point is the facts, and these are most reassuring. The Rumanians were not content with merely holding the Germans in the Dobrudja, and resorted to the spirited manoeuvre of thrusting a force across the Danube south of Bucharest between Rustehuk and Turtukai, thus threatening Mackensen's flank. At the same time the main force of Rumanians resumed their attack upon -the German-Bulgarian invaders, pushed back their centre, and took one thousand prisoners and seven guns. The results of the crossing of the Danube have yet to be seen. In Transylvania the Rumanian progress is even better. There is no doubt now that the victory claimed by Falkeniayn near Hermannstadt was also a War Loan victory. We hear little more of it, and the effects of a real victory are certainly not visible. One wonders if the replacing of Falken- lrayn by Hindenburg as Chief of the Staff was a blind. Possibly the intention was deliberate to induce the world to believe that Falkenhayn had retired as a failure, and thus to divert attention from his preparations for the blow at Hermannstadt. Elsewhere in Transylvania the Rumanians have done well. They have beaten the Austrians at Szelrely-UtIvarhely, fifty miles within the enemy's territory, and have taken over twelve hundred prisoners, while at Fogaras they have taken eight hundred prisoners. The much-advertised seizure of the Reter Thurm Pass by the Germans was also a make- believe victory. The pass is a very long funnel, and the Germans at most occupied one end of it. They were never near the Rumanian frontier.
The scope and effects of the recent fighting on the Somme are summarized in a valuable despatch from Sir Douglas Haig dated October 3rd. He shows in effect how the method of procedure has been constantly to widen the bases of the triangles which are necessarily formed by the spear-heads of each advance • to thrust his wings beyond such formidable places as Conlles so that they must fall through, ng isolated; and to reckon the results of the fighting, not by any geographical measure, but by theenemy's loss of men, material, and moral. We have so often mentioned these points that we need not reassert their importance now. But we must quote Sir Douglas Haig's most encouraging summary of the effects of the " push " so far :- " (1) Since the opening of the battle on July 1st we have taken 28,735 prisoners. (2) We have engaged 38 Gorman divisions, of which 29 have been withdrawn in an exhausted or broken state. (3) Wo hold the half-moon of upland south of the Auer% occupying every height of importance, and so have direct observation of the ground to the east and north-oast. (4) The enemy has fallen back upon a fourth lino behind the low ridge just west of the Bapaume-Tranaloy Road."
It need only be added that in the most recent fighting our losses have been considerably less than earlier in the push.
The Macedonian news is also good. The Bulgarians have had to give way all along their line of defence, which ran from the south-west to the south-east of Monastir. At Kenali, in the centre of the Allied advance, the -Serbian, French, and Russian troops are only ten miles from the town. That is to say, the outer defences have been abandoned by the Bulgarians, and the fall of the town itself cannot be far distant. That will have a very depressing effect upon the Bulgarians when it happens. We imagine that their spirits are not very high as it is. Accounts of the fighting east of the Strums seem to show that they are suffering like all half-hearted armies. The British troops have taken heavy toll of them in the local fight- ing, and the Bulgarians are conscious that, though losing men, they are really accomplishing nothing.
There is least of all to say about the Russian fighting, for no issue has been reached as we write in the tremendous battle which is going on in Volhynia, west of Lutsk. The Russians are attempting to advance towards Vladimir-Volynski, and the Germans are still holding their ground. Hindenburg's heart has always been in the Russian theatre of war, and there is no doubt that he has considerably strengthened the German line on the Kovel front. In particular, he fears a Russian break-through in the sector between Vladimir- Volynski and Sokal. The Kovel front is of vital importance to the Germans ; all their strategy in the East depends upon holding it. We can only wait. But we wait in confidence. At this moment the Russians are probably once more invisibly gaining the ascendancy, and the end of the battle will come with a rush. As Napoleon said, very little happens in the early part of a battle, except that one side establishes its superiority.
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