TOPICS OF THE DAY.
MR. LLOYD GEORGE AND THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY. THINGS are moving in the underworld of politics— strange and ominous things. Up till now the general public has not noticed them, or if it has it simply found them incomprehensible. But for all that they are real and important. In all probability, when their signi- ficance becomes apparent and the world learns what has happened, it will be too late to avoid the consequences which they will bring in their train or to turn them and modify them to good purposes. All the same, and even at the risk of being called viewy, we shall attempt to describe them.
At present the most noticeable point and that which most tends to the confusion of men's minds has to do with the Governmental section of the Press. In portions of that Press paragraphs have lately been appearing stating that the Conservative Party is growing stronger and stronger. In the next breath we are told that no political Party can be successful for any length of time unless it is closely united for a common purpose. To prosper it must be homogeneous, and so compact. Next we learn that it is only when a Prime Minister and his Cabinet represent such a homogeneous Party and are supported by a coherent political " connexion ' that a Government can really be strong and do its duty to the country. At first sight this statement of political truisms, and the obvious deductions from them, seem to point to a way directly opposite to that which one would have imagined must proceed from the journals in which they are published. They seem, that is, to be in opposition to the views of Mr. Lloyd George and the Coalition, and to favour the Die-Hards. The Die- Herds during the past six months or more have been saying with great earnestness that the Unionist and Constitutional Party must once more become homogeneous, and that what is wanted is a Party in the old sense, led by a man who is actually, and not merely apparently, in agreement with his followers. But the Die-Hard movement has always been considered anti-Coalitionist and therefore anti-Lloyd George-ite. The Die-Hards have, in fact, served a "Notice to Quit " on Mr. Lloyd George and the Coalition Liberals. How, then, are we to explain the fact that, instead of wit- nessing the Morning Post and the Die-Hards reproved by the Lloyd George-ite Press, we see the Die-Hard policy in the abstract strongly endorsed ? We believe that the answer is to be found in the following considerations :—In the first place, Mr. Lloyd George has determined upon an appeal to the country on the first occasion on which he can find a fairly good excuse for such a course, provided also that when he dissolves he can apparently show that he has successfully poured oil upon the troubled waters of the world. Give him a smooth sea and a fairly bright sky for a month and he will have all he wants. If the Irish Civil War is stifled by a victory at Cork ; if the Provisional Government is functioning well, and not stirring up trouble with Ulster ; if the Reparations problem is glossed over for a time ; if the dilemma of the Allied debts can get a temporary quietus ; and, finally, if a good excuse for a reduction in taxation here can be obtained, we may feel pretty certain that the writs for a new Parliament will be issued.
The next point to note is that Mr. Lloyd George has come to realize that if he appeals to the country the only persons he can rely upon are the Unionist voters. But the Unionist voters are not, at the moment, in a very good temper. They have just begun to see that for the past four years the Prime Minister has been sucking the blood of the Unionist Party, with the result that the Party, instead of being, as it ought to be, strong, united, and loyal to its leaders, is split and rent like Caesar's garment. They are sick of internal quarrels, and they are still more -sick of having anti-Unionist, anti-Constitutional, and anti-Economic policies imposed upon them in order to please the Liberal element in the Government and in the House. of Commons. What makes the matter worse is that they have just found out that the Coalition Liberals, though they are fairly strong in the House of Commons, are m the country a purely phantom army. Except, perhaps, in a fev7 constituencies in Scotland, the Coalition Liberals hardly count on election day. This, translated into plain terms, means that if an appeal to the country were to be made at this moment the Coalition Liberals would for the most part disappear. Even though the Central Unionist Association were to strive their hardest to save the Coalition Liberals from defeat they could only accomplish it in a few cases. Though, doubt- less, they would not put out official Conservative candidates, Independent and Die-Hard candidates would spring up, and the Coalition Liberals would disappear.
Mr. Lloyd George is, of course, fully aware of these facts, and unless we are very much mistaken he has been taking them strongly to heart. In the terrible lingo of modern political journalism, he has been " exploring all avenues ' very thoroughly. He now knows that he could not come back at the head of a Coalition Liberal group big enough to give him the prestige and the power that he will want to enable him to hold the balance in the next House of Commons.
An alternative which has, no doubt, been considered by him is to make terms with the Wee Frees, and to start a revived Liberal Party. Here, however, he has, it is clear, met with a blank refusal. The official Liberals will have nothing to do with him. The exploration of the Labour avenue has proved equally infructuous. Labour would not have him at any price. It was useless for the explorer's deputies and advocates to explain how great the future of Labour might be if they had so eloquent a political advocate and such a master of parliamentary diplomacy at their head. The further the deputies went down that avenue the more they found every tree covered with notices " Nothing Doing." These being the facts, Mr. Lloyd. George has, unless we are greatly mistaken, decided that the only thing left for him to do is to become a Unionist. He must throw in his lot at once and for ever with the Party which now commands a majority in the Commons. He found, in fact, that almost all the Unionist leaders who have become his devoted private friends would bo willing to serve under him anywhere, and almost with any political platform, so long as he could be called a true and loyal member of the Unionist and Constitutional Party. If he would make that small sacrifice in nomencla- ture there is nothing they would not do for him and nothing he might not accomplish. Otherwise he might find himself a chief without followers.
In the circumstances what could Mr. Lloyd George do ? With Lord Balfour, Mr. Boner Law, Lord Curzon and the rest of them as his faithful lieutenants, the future would seem comparatively bright. Without them and their following in the constituencies he would appear politically doomed. Unless we have misread his character and the whole of his political past, what he would be certain to do would be to accept the inevitable. His next move would be to do what we believe he is doing, namely, to prompt the newspapers which support him to write about a homogeneous Party behind a homogeneous Cabinet being the true foundation of political power. If this view catches on, as it is not unlikely that it will— for it is, after all, only common sense—we may expect to see Mr. Lloyd George at the right moment—that, of course, is essential—announcing that it is necessary to the welfare of the country to form a strong Government, and that he is assured that such a Government cannot bo formed without his entering the Constitutional and Conservative Party. Therefore—though this involves a great personal sacrifice on his part—he has determined, if the request to enter the Party is made to him, that he will accept it. Mr. Lloyd George's Liberal Coalitionist followers will then pro- ceed to say ditto to their chief and they will all be accepted as Unionists. There will be grumblings, of course, but the possession of large Party funds by the Lloyd George-ite Liberals will, no doubt, considerably facilitate the fusion.
Probably an effort will also be made to bring back the Die-Hards, and excellent terms will be offered to them. Unless, however, we are very much mistaken, they will prefer to hold a watching brief rather than to come back into a " thoroughly rebuilt and redecorated " Coalition —" business in Peerages, Baronetages, Knighthoods conducted as usual during alterations." They are a body of men who have proved their sincerity and their independence. They can afford to wait.
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