THE SITUATION IN THE BALKANS.
[To THE EDITOR OP THE "SPECTATOR."] SIB,—" The Sublime Porte declares that the bomb outrages in Salonica are Anarchist in manner and degree, and should so be regarded by European Powers, who ought to take measures against the perpetrators, as against other Anarchist fanatics." Such is the view of the latest Balkan gmeute which the Turkish authorities commend to the Great Powers. It is a view at once erroneous and most dangerous, for it implies a complete confusion as to the actual incidence of the outbreak, and the necessary development of the situation. Students of history need not to be reminded that once before Salonica has begun what the Northern Balkan States have completed. In the Balkan Rebellion of 1876-78 it was at this Macedonian: sea-port that the first determined effort was made to throw off the Turkish yoke, and every one knows that as a result of the rebellion Turkey lost her control over the Northern Balkan States. Since 1878 Servia, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Bulgaria have been lost to the Sultan, though Bosnia and Herzegovina only exchanged one master for another. But it is not from the point of view of historical repetition that the recent dis- turbances are important ; rather ought critical observers to consider where the brunt of destruction fell. Some fifty bombs were thrown at a time when the streets were packed, and yet the estimate of deaths amounts only to a hundred and fifty, and of those some were not really concerned in the Balkan imbroglio at all. It seems plain from the most recent accounts that the conspirators directed their efforts against foreign property, for the Ottoman Bank was evidently the principal object of attack, and the loss must fall on Western shareholders. Already the German Government has de- manded satisfaction for the loss and injury sustained by its subjects, and there must be other Governments to follow suit;
and indeed in doing so Western Europe will but help to carry out the conspirators' design. Some time back the Revolutionist
leader Saravow declared that the intention of his Committee was to compel European Powers to interfere, and he said that the only way to do this was to strike at their financial interests. The Revolutionist leaders have no very high opinion of European benevolence. Now the points selected for special attention by the dynamitards were almost uniformly connected with Western European interests. The Ottoman Bank alone is a good enough example, but one can mention besides such institutions as the German school, Catholic church, and so forth. The correspondent of the Neue Freie Presse lays special stress on the number of prominent members of the Western European colony who suffered during the emeute or narrowly escaped. Already there is talk of a Berlin Conference, and we no longer hear from Constantinople that the repre- sentatives of the Great Powers are uniformly instructed that the Powers will leave Turkey to settle the matter herself. In a word, not so much water will flow through the Dardanelles before the Balkan States will compel Europe to take a hand in the game. That is their deliberate policy, and they are fully determined to carry out the pro. gramme. It was known weeks ago here that the Macedonians were storing dynamite all over the country, and of a certainty we have not yet heard the end of the dynamite outrages. But even if Europe were disposed to let Turkey settle the Balkan question for herself, it is very doubtful if Turkey could do it. To keep an army of a hundred and fifty thousand men in the field for months, a country needs a sound financial system and a good credit. Turkey possesses neither; she must squeeze even current expenses out of an already sorely tried people, and for a prolonged campaign in a difficult country, over a huge area, and against unscrupulous opponents, she is utterly unprepared. According to the latest advices, the Kurds have been instructed to collect the taxes in Armenia, and the reports of their proceedings, ghastly as they are, are unfortunately well authenticated. A rising is threatened throughout Anatolia, and that would obviously be the last straw. As for the Balkan States them- selves, there can be no question that there is no such supply of food as would support an army of occupation for even a short campaign. The native population subsists as a regular habit on provender which would starve a Turkish soldier accustomed even to such food as he is wont to get. But
indeed the massing of Turkish troops in the disturbed dis- tricts is more a forlorn hope than a studied policy. If the insurgents could be frightened into submission, it might be possible for Turkey to consolidate her power for another generation, but it needs not a long acquaintance with Albanians and Bulgarians to realise that they will not be so frightened. Like the Montenegrins, these people claim to be heroes every one of them, and their claim is made in no spirit of boastfulness, but in full confidence that as the fathers were so must the sons prove. The histories of the families who make up the mountain populations in the Peninsula are amongst the most astonishing in the world. They are, in effect, the modern antitypes of the family records of Homer's Greeks.
And the last question which presents itself remains, as ever, unanswerable. What will be the end of it all P Left to her- self, Turkey will find the crisis too great for her moderate powers, and Stcherbina's prophecy that his death would mean the end of Turkey is like enough to prove true; but there remains the wider doubt as to whether Russia or Austria, Slav
or Teuton, is to be the future zorpaytc Avidr,—Lord of the Empire of Turkey. The contemplated moves of the Powers interested are practically unquestioned. Russia sees, no doubt, an opening at last by which, after half-a-century of intrigue, she may force her way to Constantinople, and so secure command over one more of the gateways of Europe. As for Austria, her troops are always ready to move from Novipazar to Mitrovica, since that way lies her direct route to the coveted port of Salonica. Here and there may be heard rumours even now of a possible conflict between the Empires of the Kaiser and the Czar, but the conflict is much more likely to be a conflict of words than swords, a conflict ending, as usual, considerably to the advantage of the Czar. There are, how- ever, other Powers interested in the Balkan question—If Austrian troops occupy Mitrovica, there seems to be little doubt that Italy would make an effort to resume her ancient sway over the coast-line from Durazzo to Valona; and the Powers interested in the naval situation in the Mediterranean could hardly watch Russian ships of war steaming un- checked through the Straits without endeavouring to close the gate in front of them. It seems almost impossible that international jealousy and national ambitions should allow of a combined control over the Balkan Peninsula; and yet failing that there remains only the last and worst ex- pedient,—to leave the Peninsula free to settle its disputes in its own way. The result would be a disturbed Europe, perhaps for several generations. Servia is watching, lynx- eyed, for a chance to enlarge her borders ; Bulgaria is ready to seize any opportunities that present themselves, if, indeed, she is not already at war with Turkey by the time these lines are in print ; and we know that Greece has a grievance which she would find a great opportunity to ventilate, should the ejection of Turkey leave room for Greek expansion. It is only a few days since King Alexander of Servia declared that Servia was ready to act should occasion arise; Bulgaria has acted; and the signs of unrest on the Greek frontier grow more noticeable ever day. The situation is intolerable, and if concerted action is to prevent a breach of the peace of Europe, that action must be taken at once.—I am, Sir, &c.,
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