T HE Archbishop of Canterbury, we are told—we unfortunately missed his
speech—said recently that the century which is just beginning would probably be the most interesting and one of the greatest of all centuries. He made, no doubt, a mental reservation for the first century, which witnessed the greatest and most effective of all historic events ; but, always with that reserve, we should be inclined to agree heartily with the Archbishop. In the distributions of power, in the progress of science, and in the settlement of the great struggle between the forces of Capital and the aspirations of Labour, the changes of the century will probably be without parallel in any previous period. That, however, is but speculation, for prophecy is impossible except to the Most High, whose will cannot be fettered by human dreams. It is hard enough for a human mind to forecast even for five minutes ; but so far as it is possible to calculate—we entirely admit that the possi- bility is slight—the outlook for the coming year must be a gloomy one. To begin with, the likelihood of great wars, which will produce in any case little gain for the civilised, is, as we have tried to explain elsewhere, most considerable. They are nearly certainties. and if our public really understood the chances, it would tend to decrease that " lightness of heart " which the observant seem to perceive in every ebullition of public feeling. The quarrel in the Far East may drag half Europe within its vortex, and must exercise most disastrous influence on all trade and all national expenditures. Under the modern system of gigantic armaments it is almost as costly to be ready as to go to war. Even if peace should be secured in spite of all the omens, the causes of quarrel will not be, cannot be, extinguished, and the world will continue waiting for a catastrophe which, in spite of arbitration clauses, can hardly be averted. The bare statement of the financial preparations both at Tokio and St. Petersburg will suggest, though in a very weak way, the extent of the resources which must be squandered even in the commencement of such a war, and which must be recouped in the end by fresh demands upon the toil of the subject populations. We may steer clear of the imbroglio, for France is willing to follow that line, and in neutralising France we almost keep our promise to Japan ; but we may not, and to judge by appearances, which are all we have to judge by, it is not so much a cloud as a cyclone that is gathering in the Far East, the storm being the more threatening because it is not one of those which can be reckoned as transient. The existence of Japan, the most resolute of the Asiatic Powers, is admittedly at stake ; and Russia never surrenders a purpose which she thinks essen- tial. As has long ago been observed, the Tartar tribe, whose flight from the wrath of the White Czar was so wonder- fully described by De Quincey, has been caught again, and now takes all final orders from St. Petersburg. Russia, if defeated, will prepare, though it takes a century,for a renewal of the struggle ; and the chance of its breaking out a second time will remain for years, perhaps for a generation, one of the clouds in the Far East. The unrest in the Balkans, again, can hardly be pacified without a resort to arms. Macedonia will not be quiet unless it is depopulated, Bulgaria cannot allow it to be depopulated, and Europe will not permit Bulgaria to be added once again to the list of the oppressed provinces of the Turk. Partition between Austria and Russia is possible, but cannot be accomplished until the Ottoman has been driven back into Asia; and even partition will stir the jealous Courts of Europe into fierce, and, it may be, warlike, antagonism. A small war in the Balkans is inevitable, and a small war may easily develop into one of the first class. The Ottoman caste will make at least one great fight before it surrenders its European heritage. Without, therefore, counting in the least on the disturbances which might follow one or two accidents, such as the death of the Emperor Francis Joseph, or the outburst of a great insur- rection in Russia which might, though we think it would not, follow defeat, the year promises two great wars which, whatever their ultimate result, must for the moment be costly and disastrous in the extreme. There is no sign whatever that the spirit which produced the Arbitration Court at the Hague will effectively control, or even moderate, the ambitions of the Great Powers ; and the heavy burden of preparation, which has turned Europe into a standing camp, has not yet so far exhausted the nations as to compel them, as the great wars of 1803-15 did, to be peaceful in order to recuperate.
Within our own borders the prospect is hardly brighter. Political confusion never was so complete. Whatever the merit or demerit of Mr. Chamberlain's views, their pro- posal in public has smashed the old organised parties, and driven the old politicians under the old banners to seek new leaders. Those leaders will arrive in good time, of course, as they always in our history have arrived ; but it is almost certain that they will not arrive within the year. The only visible leader of mark is Mr. Chamberlain, who at present produces nothing but disunion. In a time of the greatest events abroad a shattered Parliament will be compelled to follow advisers in whom it only half con- fides, to prepare for wars without a conviction of how they may best be met, and to discuss " reforms " without any- thing like a clear idea as to the results which those "reforms " will or will not produce. There is no Premier, for Mr. Balfour has abdicated his political primacy ; and while there are half-a-dozen possible leaders of Opposition, no one has been accepted. Of a national leader to whom all parties must yield no trace can be discerned, for even if we concede to Mr. Chamberlain all that his admirers claim, the body of the people have still to give him that endorsement without which under demo- cratic institutions all popularity is but apparent. No one, we think, holding any set of convictions will deny that the Government must be weak, and a weak Govern- ment can scarcely deal with the huge questions which will be upon the carpet. To take but one source of infinite dis- turbance, though entirely domestic. The "reformers" have yet to reconcile the proletariat to taxation upon its food, a reconciliation which will still be difficult even if, as " Fair- traders " believe, the general rate of wages is increased. The poorer will still perceive that they are taxed in order that the richer may continue prosperous, and will ask why food should be dear because each household has a few shillings a, week more to spend. There is little of social peace in that prospect. The doubt that will still hang over the land, the new fears of loss and the new hopes of gain, the bitter struggle between the thinkers and the " experienced," the fierce contention between opposing trading interests, each hoping for a degree of protection that its rivals will resist, whatever their ultimate result, will most unquestionably, while the struggle lasts, produce unwonted tumult. It will be hardly possible to avoid a General Election in the spring, and if that Election ends, as seems just now quite likely, in a small majority, the Irish party will hold the balance of power, and will assuredly not be content with a Roman Catholic University, which, just as the concession is, will stir theological spite- fulness into fury, and theological reason into hot polemics. And if they are not content, the Home-rule question will be upon us once more, again to shatter parties and divide the people into camps. Certainly, speaking always with the reserve we mentioned at first, the prospect of social and political peace this year is at least but dim.
But why indulge in these gloomy forebodings ? For this reason : that we intensely desire to increase the gravity of our readers' thoughts. The note of the time which strikes us as most dangerous is the note of light-mindedness, or rather of a word the equivalent of which we wish we had in the language,—legerete. We look upon war like amateurs, upon taxation like millionaires, upon social warfare like superintendents of police. We postpone everything to the desire for excitement, and are' happy if the news of the day, though it be of catastrophe, gives piquant interest to that day's talk. This tone, which is new in England— for even under the Regency men like Mr. Creevey, though they were gossips, were in earnest—is as dangerous as it ever was in France in the time of the Third Napoleon. We are not pessimists, and have no fears for Britain if only her people will be serious, and allow their strong conception of duty to be the dominant motive of their acts. For the moment they seem willing to welcome war in the Far East because Russians are ambitious and Japanese soldiers are brave, to treat the uprising in the Near East as if it were only a justifiable riot and to discuss a vast project of fiscal change as if they shared in Mr. Chamberlain's contempt for statistics and for facts. Great is cricket, and panto- mimes are enjoyable ; but it is not by devotion to either that the problems of the coming year will be solved.
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