We do not discuss the various rumours about mobilisations in
the Far East, for we do not believe that they are, or can be, accurately reported. The cables and wires are under Russian and Japanese control, and neither of those two Powers can be expected to allow military or naval movements to leak out prematurely. It is even possible that the Russians may repeat the policy of the Crimean War, and by keeping their ships in the harbours of Port Arthur and Vladivostock, may baffle the hopes of the Japanese Navy, and confine the war to operations on land. The Japanese may then be forced to risk a very serious and dangerous enterprise, the seizure of Port Arthur or Vladivostock. It does not need information to assure observers that the Russians would prefer a land war, or that the Japanese would endeavour to besiege some place which would force Russia to a continuous expenditure of troops and treasure at a vast distance from her true base. That was the secret of the Allies' victory in the Crimea, and the Intelligence Department of Japan studies everything.
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