" THE LAW OF BIRTHS AND DEA.TTIS."
[To sae EDITOR OP THE " eincearoa."1 SIR,— May I express my cordial appreciation of the candid and generous way in which Mr. Roche has acknowledged his mis- apprehension of the scope and character of my book The Law of Births and Deaths1 A similar frankness all round would assist materially in promoting a solution of the problem. With all that has been said in regard to the vital importance of the question I am, of course, in complete agreement; and it appears to me that the matter is not only of vital importance, but is rapidly becoming urgent. Consider the significance of the following figures, showing the birth-rates for the four quarters of last year :- Quarter ending Births per 1,000"
last day of of population.
March — ... 28.9 June ... ... 26.5 September ... ... ... 24.2 December
Observe that there was a fall of roughly two per thousand for each successive quarter throughout the year, and that by the last quarter the birth-rate, which had leaped up as the result of the disbanding of our armed forces, had fallen right down to pre-war level. The question arises whether the fall will continue on the same scale throughout the present year. Now, the first quarter of this year showed a birth-rate practically identical with that of the last quarter of 1920; but this is accounted for by the fact that there was a huge leap in the marriage-rate during the second quarter of last year, the effects of which showed themselves in checking the fall of the birth-rate in the first quarter of this year, nine months later. But for this increase in the marriage-rate the birth-rate for the first quarter of 1921 would almost certainly have been down to about twenty per thousand of population.
As there was an enormous slump in marriages during the last quarter of 1920 and the first quarter of 1821, the effect of which upon the birth-rate should be seen during the last two quarters of this year, it requires no great powers of deduction to perceive that by the end of the present year we are likely to be faced with a birth-rate as low as, or even lower than, the French birth-rate before the war. While as the French birth- rate is governed by the same demographic laws and barely balanced the death-rate even before the war, it is obvious that there is every probability that the number of births in France during the present year will be less than the number of deaths. There may be a slight temporary rally, but we have to face the fact that within a very short time we shall be confronted with a birth-rate permanently lees than that of France before the war and steadily declining; while France will be faced with a population on the decline.
_Shall we look ahead and face the problem in good time? Or
shall we continue to ignore it and devote the major part.of our energies to football and cricket? In America the Angle-seem element is rapidly dying out. It is the immediate danger of a declining population in France which is causing the worst of our diplomatic difficulties on the Continent owing to French dread of a revived Germany with a population still rapidly increasing—a danger which France instinctively endeavours to counter by attempting to arrange for the permanent crippling of Germany. We ourselves shall soon be unable to maintain the Anglo-Saxon element in our Colonies, and shall have to reckon upon a steadily declining population unless, indeed, we are content to acquiesce in its reinforcement by other races from outside.
The successful grappling with this danger provides the most stupendous problem which confronts the human race. The problem is difficult and complex. Its solution is remote and will require much time, for not only biological problems of great complexity are involved, but the whole problem of social organization. Therefore the sooner -the problem is grappled with the greater our chance of -final success. But we stand no chance of success unless we know exactly what sort of problem it is that we are dealing with—whether biological or economic merely. This can only be ascertained by a thorough inquiry carried out along lines intelligently conceived, .with .a readiness to accept whatever conclusions the evidence leads to regardless of preconceived ideas. It is my belief that none of the problems confronting society are insoluble if we put the necessary energy, acumen, and intellectual honesty into the task. The real danger is lest those who are best placed to assist in the eolution of the problem, and whose obvious duty it is to do so, should prefer to lapse into unheroic silence rather than admit the necessity for revising opinions which they are in no position to justify.—
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