TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THOUGHTS ABOUT THE CENSUS. THE census returns, in spite of all disguises, deal with one of the most fascinating subjects which it is possible for an Englishman to study. They deal not only with the increase of population but with the tendency of the population to regroup themselves_geographically ; they are the raw material of prediction about the future of the country. We see some towns increasing in size, others decreasing ; we see centrifugal movement here, centripetal movement there. When what is called the Industrial Revolution which came with the advent of steam was in full swing an inclination became manifest to regard the hearts of great cities as mere workshops which men should get out of as quickly as possible when the day's work was finished. That tendency has been operating ever since, and, in spite of the fact that the latest census deals with a period in which the war checked or diverted almost every existing habit of the people, the movement away from the hearts of great towns has visibly continued. The population of Greater London has risen, but in the City and the metropolitan boroughs the numbers have become smaller. In the past the centrifugal trek has been aided by rapid means of transport for conveying people to and from their work, but this aid is likely to be enormously increased in the future as the development of motor traffic on the roads makes distance of less account than it ever was before.
It should be understood that the returns which are before us are only provisional, but if we may judge from past experience a more detailed official scrutiny of the figures will bring little need for correction. In two impor- tant respects the numbering of the people " in 1921 has been abnormal. The mortality of the war was bound to have a marked effect, and the numbering was done at an inconvenient time of year. It is always the object of the Registrar-General to take the census in a month when the majority of persons may be expected to be in their own homes. Unfortunately, this year the, census had to be postponed owing to the coal strike, and when it actually took place a large number of people were . already making holiday—there seems to be an inclination nowadays to take holidays earlier in the summer than formerly. The Irish census, of course, was not taken at all, for obvious reasons. Although over 600,000 men of England, Wales and Scotland were killed in the war the population of these countries has risen by nearly two millions. Nevertheless, this is a much smaller increase than any previously recorded. If emigration had not been virtually suspended for several years the increase would have been even smaller. A great many persons who look at the percentages of increase will, no doubt, raise their hands in horror and say that an increase of only 4.8 per cent. in England and 2.5 per cent. in Scotland means that our home race is in danger of coming to a standstill, like that of France, or of dying out. In the 1901 to 1911 period the English increase was 10.4 per cent. and even that was lower than any figure previously recorded. But reservations and qualifications are emphatically necessary, for it is terribly easy to be misled by statistics.
For one thing, a small percentage of increase on a very large population means, of course, a larger total increase than is indicated by a high percentage of increase on a very much smaller population. Suppose, for example, a town with a population of 50,000 that increased by only 3 per cent. The total increase of the town would be 1,500 persons. Whereas if a small town of 3,000 increased by 8 per cent. the total increase would be only 240 persons. When comparing percentages it is always necessary to compare the grand totals to which the percentages apply. In the full flood of the Tariff Reform movement some of 'our economists used to try to make our flesh creep by telling us that the percentage of the increase of German trade was extremely high and the percentage of the increase of British trade extremely low. But too often there was an entire omission to mention the totals of British and German trade which were the, starting-point of the- comparison. One might as well have said that the proprietor of a tiny newspaper and tobacco shop was making his fortune because he increased his turnover by 80 pei cent., whereas one of our mighty stores was being ruined because its increase was only about 11- per cent. It is necessary to bear another thing in mind. A low birth-rate per family does not necessarily imply approaching stagnation of the race, for the simple reason that a low birth-rate together with an increased number of marriages may easily be the equivalent of a high birth-ride with a much lower number of marriages. We must not now go again into the problem of what is rather stupidly called race suicide." It is enough to record the fact that our population is steadily increasing. One can say, indeed, more than that. For though there was naturally a great drop in the birth-rate during the war, in the years since the war there has been a very high birth-rate, and that was accompanied in 1926 and since by an extraordinarily low death-rate. The plagues of virulent sickness which succeeded the war have, temporarily at all events, worn themselves out, and there is now general good health. The result of the war is to be seen most markedly perhaps in the preponderance of women over men. There are now nearly two million more women than men. This disparity, which would be inconvenient in any case, is particularly inconvenient at present, because most of the men who were killed in the war were men of marriageable age. The fact is further complicated by the new seriousness and doubtful- ness of the old question, Can I afford to marry ? " Pessi- mists will tell us that the nation is in great danger of demoralization and decline because the educated classes in their straitened circumstances can less and less afford to marry, while the uneducated classes are under no greater disability than before. We suspect, however, that the educated classes will adapt themselves to the new con- ditions, however stringent they may be. They would be poor-spirited lovers who ceased to love because they had to live in a cottage ! Besides, it is very hazardous to judge of the real facts, or the facts which may displace the present period of transition, by merely superficial appearances. New classes are unceasingly forming beneath the old classes—welling up to the top and taking. their places. If we may judge from the public schools there is a greater demand for their sort of education than has ever been experienced before. Probably new classes are sending their sdhs to public schools, and the old classes, who regard public-school education as a kind of birthright, but who can no longer strictly afford it, are still by hook or by crook managing to pay for it, generally by inroads upon their capital. If the disparity between men and women should continue and even become greater, as may, of course, happen, the results may be very interesting. Within the predictable future there may be a considerable majority of women electors. The effect of such a large female- vote upon public questions, now that women have taken their place in the open labour market, may be great. But on the whole we venture to think that the results will be much less exciting than some people think. The study of matriarchy will probably remain a subject strictly reserved for the historians of primitive systems.
Seventy-three per cent. of the population now live in urban as distinguished from rural areas. There has been only a trifling increase during the last three decades. The rural population shows a trifling fall, but this must not be taken too literally, as some former rural districts have been recently included in the category of urban districts. In any case, it seems to be true that the "rush " from the villages to the towns of thirty years ago has stopped. If the country had been able to afford the Corn Production Acts, a better system of cultivation with an accompanying increase of enlightenment and amenities in the villages might have actually drawn people back to the land. That was not to be ; but-we hope that the improvement of husbandry, even without State help, will attract people to the land and that the right balance between the urban and rural populations, which has been lost through several generations, will be recovered and maintained. Nor may a movement back to the land be helped only by improved agriculture. It is obvious that a great many manufacturing firms which have had their factories in the great 'towns are moving further afield. They are !` fed up " with high rates and taxes, for these things quite counterbalance the advantage of being near important railways and points of distribution. This movement, like the centrifugal migration of private persons from the centres of towns, is helped by the new use of the roads. Motor lorries may do work that once could be done only by the railways. Further, one cannot doubt that a future age will see mechanical power conveyed to great distances from generating stations. If so, it may be that industrial life will not merely be characteristic of cities but will spring up here, there and everywhere. Rural East Anglia may become industrialized and do a great Scandinavian and Russian trade. It is appalling to think that those who are not yet born may see a factory chimney from nearly every " view point "—but no, we need not even think of that, because if the development which we are imagining occurs there will be no factory chimneys.
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